Debra Thompson is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail.
Pierre Poilievre won’t be able to manage Donald Trump, either.
In one fell swoop, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement, the pending Liberal leadership race, the prorogation of Parliament, and the near guarantee that there will be a federal election this spring have catapulted Canada into a political transition at a challenging moment. With president-elect Donald Trump poised to take over the Oval Office on Jan. 20 and promising a barrage of executive orders on “day one,” the Prime Minister’s Office will be in a weakened position to protect Canadian interests currently held hostage by the crossfire of Mr. Trump’s agenda.
This vulnerability comes at a particularly fraught time in Canada-U.S. relations. Mr. Trump’s provocations that Canada is commensurate to (and should become an) American state should not be taken lightly.
Mr. Trump’s recent jabs at Mr. Trudeau, referring to him as the “Governor” of the “Great State of Canada,” are clearly an attempt to troll the current Prime Minister. Relations between Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Trump have never been a cause for great concern, but neither have they been close or even collegial. These declarations about Canadian statehood are both classic Trumpian ignominy and his way of emphasizing what he sees as a clear power imbalance between the two countries.
Amid the uncertainty of the resetting of both Canadian and American political landscapes, will Mr. Trudeau’s resignation revitalize Canada’s chance of repositioning itself in Mr. Trump’s good graces?
It’s doubtful.
Mr. Trudeau has served as a rhetorical foil and fodder for Mr. Trump over the years. The stark contrast between the two leaders was immediately apparent. In 2015 Mr. Trudeau gloated about his groundbreaking commitment to gender parity in his first cabinet, and less than a year later Mr. Trump’s first presidential campaign was marred by allegations of sexual predation.
And, of course, the Liberal Party of Canada and American Republicans sit worlds apart in ideological terms. Even centrist Democrats often land to the right of Canadian conservatives on many social issues.
While it’s not a foregone conclusion that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will become the next prime minister, the polls suggest that it’s likely. Mr. Poilievre and the Conservative Party have been careful not to overtly ride the coattails of Mr. Trump’s victory in the United States; doing so would alienate those Canadians who are appalled by Mr. Trump’s return to power but who also want to see an end to the nine-year reign of Mr. Trudeau.
But the Trumpian political ambitions of Mr. Poilievre are obvious. Mr. Poilievre frequently uses the same populist rhetoric as Mr. Trump, casting himself – a career politician with, literally, no other relevant job experience other than in Parliament – as a victim of political elites and the establishment. Like Mr. Trump, Mr. Poilievre hurls insults at his political opponents, claims to defend the common people, exhibits disdain for expertise, sees identity politics as ubiquitous, recent, and divisive (except when it comes to Quebec – that would be political suicide), and sees the media not as the guardrails of democracy, but as unworthy adversaries who question and might thwart his pursuit of power.
However, Mr. Poilievre’s Trump-like tendencies do not matter to Mr. Trump and will not benefit Canada-United States relations in the short or long term. Mr. Trump does not care about the Liberal leadership race and will not be persuaded to ease tariffs against Canada when Mr. Trudeau is no longer the prime minister. He will not change his position on securing the border once the Conservatives win the next election.
Mr. Trump cannot be managed from within or abroad. Ideology is inconsequential to him. The only thing that matters to Mr. Trump is fealty.
Mr. Trump responded to Mr. Trudeau’s resignation by suggesting on social media, yet again, that Canada become the 51st American state. It’s an absurd proposition. No Canadian political party leader in their right mind would sign on to that messaging. This is even more the case for Mr. Poilievre and the Conservative Party, who have reinvented their brand as true, loyal, proudly unhyphenated Canadians.
As Liberal leadership contenders fight it out and Canada barrels toward an election that will likely result in a new governing party or coalition, the challenge will not be placating Mr. Trump – an inadvisable and impossible task – but rather protecting Canadian political and economic interests in an era bound to be marked by increasing American volatility. Mr. Poilievre may borrow from Mr. Trump’s populist playbook, but he, like any Canadian leader, must ultimately answer to a political culture that values stability over chaos, compromise over confrontation, and most importantly, its hard-won sovereignty over any foreign influence, whether invited or imposed.