Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based journalist.
Technically, the 20th congress of the Communist Party of China last month only delivered Xi Jinping a third five-year term as General Secretary – a more powerful position than the country’s head of state or commander in chief, though he also holds those posts.
But the move is unprecedented in China’s recent history, and Mr. Xi has removed all obstacles to staying in power indefinitely. And while Mr. Xi claims to be constructing a “great modern socialist country,” the congress saw Chinese politics regress in significant areas, including excluding women from top leadership positions, dropping his perceived non-supporters from key ruling bodies and concentrating power in his hands.
As Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, told The Market NZZ: “Xi was not elected for five more years, but de facto for another 10 or 15 years.”
This parallels the country’s earlier years, with Mao Zedong serving as leader of the People’s Republic of China from its birth on Oct. 1, 1949, until his death on Sept. 9, 1976.
The centralized autocracy created by Mr. Xi certainly expedites executive decision making. But political analysts suggest that such a system also lays the groundwork for uncertainty, with no designated heir and no institutional procedure as to when and under what circumstances the incumbent is to step down.
“One could say that Xi Jinping is a man in a hurry: he wants to go down in the history books as the man who reestablished China as a great power,” said Mr. Wuttke. That, it seems, is more urgent than grooming a successor.
While his two immediate predecessors both stepped down after two terms, Mr. Xi has dismantled this process. In fact, instead of promoting 59-year-old Hu Chunhua – who happened to be the right age to potentially become the next leader – to the Politburo Standing Committee, or PSC, Mr. Xi kicked him off the decision-making body entirely at the congress.
Another danger is that, with no independent voices around him, Mr. Xi may not receive full and unvarnished reports. It is interesting, for example, that Li Qiang – the Shanghai party leader responsible for the city’s tumultuous two-month lockdown earlier this year – is expected to be China’s next premier despite never having served as vice premier, or indeed in any central government post. Loyalty, it seems, is enough to beget promotion.
This isn’t to say that the six other members of the new Politburo Standing Committee – Mr. Li, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang and Li Xi – are incompetent sycophants. They are all highly capable, and Mr. Li had distinguished himself in major provincial posts.
One of Mr. Xi’s first acts after the congress was to take the six men to Yanan, Mao’s revolutionary base in northwest China from 1935 to 1948, which Mr. Xi called the party’s “holy land.”
This trip is rich in symbolism. Ten years ago, when Mr. Xi first became the party’s General Secretary, he led the PSC members to the National Museum in Beijing, where they viewed an exhibit, “The Road Toward Renewal.” Mr. Xi then put forward the idea of the “Chinese Dream,” which he said was “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” That concept became the embodiment of his political ideology.
Five years ago, after winning a second term, Mr. Xi led the committee’s new members to Shanghai to visit the site of the first Communist Party congress in 1921. Mr. Xi led his colleagues in vowing never to stray from the goal of serving the people.
Yanan is important because, in 1945, Mao became the Communists’ supreme leader, similar to Mr. Xi’s position today. Mr. Xi called that meeting a “major milestone” in the party’s maturity in political direction, ideology and organizational structure, Xinhua news agency reported.
The beleaguered party was holed up in that remote corner of northern Shaanxi province for 13 years, before emerging to defeat the ruling Kuomintang in the Chinese Civil War.
Coincidentally, in 13 years it will be 2035, which Mr. Xi has set as the year when China would be among the world’s most advanced countries. Mr. Xi would be 82 years old at that time, but he apparently plans to still be in power then. After all, Mao was leader until his death at 82, and Joe Biden, who turns 80 later this month, says he intends to run for re-election as U.S. President in 2024.
Mr. Xi’s Yanan trip is effectively a vow that the party, facing new challenges, will once again emerge triumphant. While the outcome of China’s struggle with the U.S. may be unknowable, Mr. Xi has made clear that he sees the process extending much longer than five years.