Electricity generation in Canada peaked in 2017 and has since declined.Andres Valenzuela/The Globe and Mail
The International Energy Agency recently put out a list of ways people could insulate themselves from price jumps caused by the war in the Middle East. With suggestions such as driving more slowly and flying less, it could have doubled as a decarbonization manifesto.
Behavioural and lifestyle shifts away from fossil fuels are one way people can make themselves less exposed to geopolitical events beyond their control. However, for this to happen en masse requires a lot of electricity.
But here Canada faces a big problem: Electricity generation peaked in 2017, and is down 4 per cent since. Both British Columbia and Quebec are now net importers of electricity.
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Demand will grow as the population does, even if behaviour doesn’t change. Adding big new loads as people switch to electric vehicles, heat pumps and other low-emission uses would require a serious ramp-up of electricity generation. Canada must be ready to meet this demand.
The Canada Energy Regulator issued a report earlier this month that modelled four scenarios for energy demand by 2050. The need for electricity is expected to surge under each of the four, rising as much as 84 per cent if the country achieves net-zero.
The independent agency, which oversees federally regulated energy projects, assumes that the bulk of that increase will come from sources other than fossil fuels. Low- or zero-emission generation will rise to 96 per cent of the total, from the current 80 per cent.
Another recent take, this one from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, agrees that more power is needed but argues that switching to clean sources for the last 20 per cent of electricity generation would be too costly. The think tank says that reliability of power supply has to take precedence over the sustainability of how it is generated.
A 2022 report from RBC offers a way to mesh these approaches. The analysis says that some dirtier electricity generation may be necessary for years to come to smooth the path to a cleaner energy future.
In truth, Canada will probably need all of the above for the foreseeable future. Wind, solar, hydro and nuclear, but also fossil fuels.
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How Ottawa intends to chart its course toward a future that has both abundant and clean energy should soon be revealed. Early in February, Prime Minister Mark Carney promised “in the coming weeks” a national electricity strategy to double grid capacity, allowing “Canadians to adopt low-carbon technologies such as electric vehicles.”
And next week is the deadline for Mr. Carney’s government to reach a carbon-pricing deal with the government of Alberta. That is one milestone toward the end of Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta. These would set pollution limits on fossil fuel-generated electricity, starting in 2035, which the Macdonald-Laurier Institute says get in the way of creating new capacity.
The effects of the electricity strategy Mr. Carney unveils will play out long after the current war in the Middle East is over. But the crisis should not be forgotten. The war has made clear that net zero is not just an environmental goal, it is a strategic one.
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The oil shocks of the 1970s produced only a burst of greener behaviour before old habits re-asserted themselves. However, some countries have since embarked more seriously on this path. Spain has moved heavily into renewables, enough that 40 per cent of electricity came from wind and solar in 2024. A recent plunge in the cost of renewable energy has made it cheaper than ever to build this type of capacity.
Some fossil fuel uses in modern life are not easily replaced. They are fundamental to the manufacture of plastics, for example. And even countries that decarbonize would remain hostage to the bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions to the shipping of helium are threatening computer chip production.
Still, people can reduce the impact of oil shocks on their own lives. In its list of suggestions, the IEA notes that working from home, cycling or taking public transit where possible and switching to electric stoves.
While these are not feasible for everyone, the list generally is a blueprint for reducing vulnerability to energy volatility. But to give Canadians the capacity to make the switch to a lower-carbon life in a big way, the country will need to power the future with a lot more electricity.