Job seekers get assistance with resumes at an immigrant job, career, education and settlement fair in Vancouver in October.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
In Prime Minister Mark Carney’s May mandate letter to cabinet laying out his government’s agenda, he vowed to attract the best talent in the world to help build the economy, while returning overall immigration rates to sustainable levels.
But the immigration plan laid out in last week’s budget raises questions about how serious the federal government is about meeting those goals.
The reduction of new temporary workers and international students is a good thing, given the influx was putting downward pressure on wages and adding to strain on the housing market.
But the latest levels plan repeats past mistakes by catering to employers’ short-term needs rather than focusing on long-term economic growth.
Last week’s federal budget lamented that Canada’s immigration system, originally built to evaluate applicants based on merit, had grown in complexity and become less efficient. Yet the government boosted the numbers of permanent residents allowed in through provincial nominee programs – which allow participating provinces and territories to select economic migrants – to 91,500 next year. That’s an increase from this year’s target of 55,000, making provincial nominee programs once again one of the biggest pathways for settling in Canada.
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The programs have various streams and their criteria change based on employer needs, resulting in a complex labyrinth that confuses prospective migrants and creates steady work for immigration consultants and lawyers.
Academic research shows these programs are largely employment-driven. They often require applicants to have job offers and Canadian experience, making them part of a shift toward a “two-step” residency process, where people come to Canada first with temporary status, rather than immigrate directly from abroad.
While traditionally, federal programs focused on high-skilled workers, provincial programs bring in workers from a mix of high-skilled occupations, such as health care and technology, and low-skilled fields, such as agriculture and hospitality. Generally, prospective migrants look to provincial programs when they wouldn’t otherwise have high enough scores to get in through federal programs.
While it sounds good to fill in-demand jobs, the shift away from “human capital” – assessing applicants based on their skills and qualifications – to a focus on filling perceived holes in the labour market, often pushed by lobby groups, causes issues. These workers tend to have lower earnings, pay less tax and draw more on social programs. Overall, this approach is a drag on economic growth.
While it’s true these provincial programs help attract migrants to Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, there’s no guarantee they will stay there. Indeed, many who enter through these programs gravitate to B.C., Ontario and Quebec.
The levels plan also announced that an additional 148,000 permanent residents will be added on top of the official targets over the next two years through one-off initiatives. The majority are refugees living here who have already had their claims approved, while the remaining 33,000 are in Canada as skilled temporary workers. While offering permanent residency to the refugees makes sense, by fast-tracking the temporary workers, Canada is again missing an opportunity to search for the world’s best talent.
The federal government’s claim that the plan “stabilizes targets for permanent resident admissions” is misleading. The nominal target for new permanent residents next year is 380,000, slightly lower than this year’s 395,000.
But if the 148,000 from the one-off initiatives were included over the next two years, as they should be, the number given permanent resident status would jump to 454,000, assuming an even split. The Liberal government is creating superficial distinctions to blur reality, much as they are doing with “capital” and “operating” spending in the budget. The reality is that the government is increasing permanent resident targets for the next two years.
The federal government should focus on bringing the bulk of economic migrants through its national programs. And Ottawa should resist the urge to micromanage the labour market, and instead focus on restoring the skills-driven approach that will identify people most likely to prosper, and to help Canada prosper.