Just six weeks into President Donald Trump’s second term, it has already become repetitive to say that the old world order is over. Friday’s debacle in the Oval Office only emphasized the point.
In a moment that shook the world, Mr. Trump’s tirade against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the United States is determined to end the war by forcing Russia’s terms on Ukraine.
In doing so, he erased all hope that the U.S. is somewhere in its heart still committed to promoting the international rules-based order and defending the sovereignty of nations.
What is known of the proposed ceasefire deal could have been written by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself at a moment, three years into his war, when he desperately needs economic sanctions lifted.
Before Friday’s meltdown, American and Russian officials had already met twice without Kyiv officials in the room, and U.S. officials had already conceded that any ceasefire would likely mean a loss of territory for Ukraine, and that it could never join NATO.
As well, Mr. Trump has been insisting on the disavowal by Ukraine and the United Nations of the hard fact that Russia was the aggressor, and he has been refusing to provide any security guarantee that would prevent Mr. Putin from using the pause in hostilities to re-arm before going back after Ukraine, or after another neighbouring country.
Plus, the U.S. will only oversee the ceasefire once Ukraine agrees to put 50 per cent of all future revenues from state-owned natural resources into a joint U.S.-Ukraine fund. The money would be spent on “the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine,” and also to reimburse the U.S. for its contributions to Ukraine’s defence.
When Mr. Zelensky raised the issue of a security guarantee in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump angrily said Ukraine doesn’t hold any cards and should submit to the will of the U.S. if it knows what’s good for it.
For Canada, it was just one more disorienting moment. The day before, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer refused to come to Canada’s defence when he was asked by a reporter – Mr. Trump standing to his left after a meeting between the two men – whether he had raised the issue of the President’s desire to annex Canada and make it the 51st state. Mr. Starmer later dodged the same question during an interview on Fox News.
This week, Canada’s latest economic D-Day arrives. Blanket tariffs on Canadian goods imported into the U.S. are to come into effect on Tuesday – although, lucky us, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick says they may not be as high as 25 per cent.
And next week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will resign and make way for a new Liberal Party leader. Within weeks, there will almost certainly be a federal election.
In all this uncertainty, one thing is beyond doubt: the U.S. is now a protection racket, providing security only to countries that give it something in return – critical minerals, oil and gas, obeisance, invitations to meet a king – and will leave those who fail to adequately grovel, or refuse to repeat American lies, or who won’t pass a cash-stuffed envelope to the beefy guy who comes by the store once a month, at the mercy of strongmen like Mr. Putin.
Where that leaves Canada is now a bigger question than ever. Mr. Starmer returned to Britain and led a weekend security summit at which Britain and France vowed to assemble a “coalition of the willing” to provide Ukraine with the security the U.S. was refusing to offer.
That’s promising, if not obviously doable. Until recently, European countries had let their militaries stagnate under the assumption the U.S. would have their backs; it will take time for them to step up their defence spending.
Canada, meanwhile, is one of the coalition’s willing – the only non-European one. But it has reason to worry that European countries, looking to appease Mr. Trump on security issues and the question of tariffs, might not return the favour when it comes to the President’s designs on a country on the far side of the Atlantic.
Whoever becomes the next prime minister must make it clear to European allies that Canada expects its longstanding support for Ukraine, and by extension for the Europe and the rules-based order, will be reciprocated. Mr. Starmer’s shameful refusals to address the question was not a promising sign.