At the same time that measles and its less severe cousin rubella are having a post-pandemic resurgence around the world, Canada’s otherwise commendable vaccination rates don’t seem to be holding steady. A vial of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine is pictured at the International Community Health Services clinic in Seattle, Wash., on March 20, 2019.Lindsey Wasson/Reuters
Measles is one of the world’s most easily spread diseases. The virus can be transmitted in the air and remain active for two hours while airborne; infected people can go weeks without symptoms, while being unknowingly contagious.
And so a recent measles outbreak in New Brunswick is not in itself particularly worrying news.
Public health officials there believe the source of the outbreak may have been an infected passenger on a flight from Toronto to Fredericton on Oct. 17 that was scheduled to land at 5 p.m. The province’s chief medical officer warned that anyone in the Fredericton airport as late as 7:30 p.m. that day may have been exposed to the virus.
Outbreaks like that are going to happen. Indeed, New Brunswick had another one in 2019 that public officials were able to contain after 12 people were infected.
But that doesn’t mean there isn’t something bigger to worry about. On the contrary. At the same time that measles and its less severe cousin rubella are having a post-pandemic resurgence around the world, Canada’s otherwise commendable vaccination rates don’t seem to be holding steady.
A new study that compared vaccination rates in 2019 through 2023 in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Yukon found a concerning decline over that five-year period. For instance, coverage for one dose of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine in two-year-old children decreased to 82.5 per cent from 89.5 per cent.
Health officials say part of that decline might be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some parents reported in the 2021 childhood National Immunization Coverage Survey (CNICS), a survey done by the Public Health Agency of Canada every two years, that the lack of available doctor’s appointments and the fear of catching COVID prevented them from getting their children vaccinated in 2020 and 2021.
But MMR vaccination rates didn’t rebound to pre-pandemic levels after that, which raises the spectre of another factor at play: the spread of misinformation about the safety and necessity of vaccines.
The 2021 CNICS report found that 15 per cent of parents believed (incorrectly) that alternative practices can replace vaccines, while 16 per cent believed healthy nutrition and hygiene can make vaccines unnecessary (also incorrect). Both those numbers were up from 11 per cent in 2019.
Meanwhile, a thoroughly debunked scientific report from 1998 that erroneously linked MMR vaccines to autism nonetheless continues to reverberate. In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump has named a man known for his unscientific campaign against vaccines as his nominee to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
Based on the 2021 CNICS report, misinformation hadn’t translated into vaccine resistance in Canada three years ago. That survey found the vast majority of people agreed that vaccines were safe (97 per cent), effective (98 per cent) and helped protect their child’s health (97 per cent).
But nothing can be taken for granted. Worldwide cases of measles rose by 20 per cent in 2023 compared to 2022, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
A 2024 study published by The Lancet said that many European, Middle Eastern and African countries have high incidences of the disease that are attributable to low vaccination rates caused by misinformation.
While not dramatic (yet), cases of measles are rising in North America, too. Canada has had 130 cases to date this year, with one confirmed death. That’s the most since 2019, the year before the pandemic, and more than 10 times the number last year, when there were 12 cases.
The same phenomenon appears to be happening south of the border. The U.S. saw 1,282 cases in 2019, followed by fewer than 20 in 2020, the first year of the pandemic. But this year, multiple outbreaks had made the number jump to 280 by mid-November.
Health officials at all levels of government need to respond to this trend by reinforcing the safety and effectiveness of childhood vaccinations through public campaigns.
They also need to ensure parents have access to the shots their children need – including those among the 6.5-million Canadians who don’t have access to a family doctor.
The New Brunswick outbreak is not the end of the world, but it would be a mistake not to treat it as a symptom of a much bigger problem.