With the public unable to judge cost or benefit, there is no real way to assess whether Ford’s highway project is worthy of consideration.Cole Burston/The Canadian Press
Ontario has a problem with big infrastructure projects being badly delayed and going massively over budget. Not to worry. Premier Doug Ford has a novel way of avoiding such awkwardness: he’s releasing neither cost estimates nor timeline for a major new highway his government is preparing to build.
The tactic may help the government deflect accusations down the road that it botched the project but it also prevents healthy debate now over the merits of the highway. Without the public being able to judge both cost and benefit, there is no real way to assess whether the highway is worthy of consideration.
Even worse, Mr. Ford pledges to go ahead as well with another major highway proposal – underground, making it much more difficult and more expensive – no matter what the feasibility studies show.
This is like deciding to take a road trip without considering how long it will take, how much wear it will put on the vehicle or what it will cost. Such a leap into the unknown might prove to be a fun ride. But it also might break the bank.
Road Sage: Doug Ford’s Highway 401 tunnel: Right idea, wrong direction
Ford proposes three-level tunnel under Highway 401, feasibility study not started
This approach is particularly attractive to an Ontario government that has taken substantial heat over the very late Eglinton Crosstown light rail transit project in Toronto. After announcing repeated delays and budget increases, the provincial transit agency Metrolinx said it would not set a new deadline until the project was nearly open. The most recent promise is to open the new line this month. Few Toronto residents would be willing to put money on that.
Struggling to deliver infrastructure is a problem that goes beyond Ontario. Transit projects across Canada have been mired in delays and cost overruns. In fact, much of the English-speaking world suffers serious cost escalation of major projects. Oxford University academic Bent Flyvbjerg has identified what he calls the iron law of mega-projects, which is that they’re “over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again.”
The solution is not suppressing information. The Canadian government is now trying to line up the political support and find the wherewithal to build big ambitious projects, from ports to pipelines. Being upfront about the costs and benefits is the only way to make the case for such expensive proposals. A lack of transparency just energizes opponents.
Mr. Ford has positioned himself as an ally of drivers since he was a city councillor in Toronto arguing that surface transit takes up too much space on the road. He has continued to carry that flag as premier and rarely misses an opportunity to show he is on the side of motorists.
The proposed Highway 413 has long been part of that political brand. It would run in a 52-kilometre arc through Toronto’s outer suburbs. Its proponents say that, by connecting highways 400 and 404, it would save some commuters a substantial amount of time while creating thousands of construction jobs.
Opponents counter that it would eat up farmland, carve a path through the protected Greenbelt area and, based on long-term trends seen around the world, motivate enough new drivers to take to the road that it too would quickly become clogged with traffic.
Whatever someone’s opinion of the project, any determination would have a fatal hole at its centre because the cost is not part of the equation. When announcing last week that two contracts needed in advance of 413 had been awarded, Mr. Ford ducked questions about the overall cost of the highway.
It’s easy to see why Mr. Ford prefers not to talk about money and timelines. He can brag about the benefits he says the highway will bring while avoiding numbers that might make voters balk. But it’s an insulting way to treat the public. It short-circuits proper political debate. And it creates future landmines of unknown size in the provincial budget.
The price could be substantial. Outside estimates range from $5-billion to upwards of $15-billion.
Should multi-billion-dollar projects go ahead without the transparent costing needed for a proper public discussion? Of course not. Without knowing just how high the price will run – or how long it will take to be built – any debate about the highway is forced to balance promised benefits against incomplete costs.
Mr. Ford should tap the brakes until all the information is available. Every driver needs a map before they hit the road.