Demonstrators rally in support of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Sunday, in Los Angeles.Jill Connelly/The Associated Press
Of all the reaction to the U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran, that of Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was the most clear eyed. In a statement, the ministry decried the Iranian regime’s “large-scale policy of violence against its own people and other countries,” a nod to the slaughter of countless thousands of anti-government protestors this year.
And the Ukrainians celebrated the disruption of the shadow alliance between Iran and Russia, rightly calling Tehran’s military aid to Moscow “a gross violation of international law.”
Anyone criticizing the U.S-Israeli strikes, and the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as a violation of international law should ponder those words. Iran cannot fund international terror, attack Israel for decades through proxies, pursue nuclear weapons and back a war of aggression in Ukraine and then expect that the niceties of international law will somehow shield it from the consequences of its actions.
After four years of bloody war with Vladmir Putin’s Russia, Ukraine understands all too well the nature of the growing conflict between an authoritarian bloc of countries and the West. Iran’s blood-soaked theocracy is part of that rogue’s gallery of authoritarian states, supplying Shahed drones and drone technology to Russia, while underwriting terror groups in the Middle East and across the world. “We remember and will never forget the strikes of thousands of ‘Shaheeds’ on our peaceful cities and people,” the ministry wrote.
Ukraine understands what many in the West cannot or will not see: the attacks on Iran are one part of the wider conflict with authoritarian states. In that context, this weekend’s air attacks on Iran creates an opportunity for the West to not only hold back, but to roll back the forces of authoritarianism and repression.
A new age of ‘total war’ may be approaching. Are young Canadians ready?
Happily, Ottawa seems to understand what’s at stake. Prime Minster Mark Carney’s statement on the weekend gave Canada’s support to the military strikes and put this country’s sympathies where they belong, with those suffering under Tehran’s tyranny. “Canada stands with the Iranian people in their long and courageous struggle against Iran’s oppressive regime.”
U.S. President Donald Trump is urging Iranians to overthrow their oppressors. Mr. Trump is, at best, an imperfect tribune, but in this instance he is correct. Outside intervention might make it possible for ordinary Iranians to rise up, by debilitating the effectiveness of state security forces. But it will be up to Iranians to determine whether 47 years of theocratic dictatorship will end.
If it does, that will be foremost cause for celebration for the people of Iran, whose culture and history has been suffocated by theocracy for nearly a half-century. Fifty years of repression against women, against anyone who deviated from the rigid version of Islam imposed by the regime: the day that nightmare ends will be a jubilant day for Iranians.
But a free Iran would have far greater consequences. For a start, Russia would be deprived of a key ally in its brutal campaign against Ukraine. Instead, Moscow would have a neutral, or even West-aligned, country to the south.
China, too, would suffer a setback. Its ability to buy Iranian oil at a deep discount would likely come to a sudden halt.
Analysis: China faces loss of another ally as U.S. pursues regime change in Iran
The effect on the Middle East of an Iran freed from the mullahs is hard to calculate. Hezbollah and the Houthis would wither without Tehran’s patronage. Israel would be safer, the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia would be more secure. The world would be a better place.
That outcome is far from certain, of course. An air campaign alone will not dislodge the Iranian theocracy, although Israeli and American air forces can limit the regime’s use of advanced weaponry against its citizens. Whether Mr. Trump has the spine to finish the fight he has started remains to be seen, particularly if American casualties mount.
Iranians are reportedly celebrating air strikes against their own cities, preferring foreign bombs to domestic bullets and truncheons. But the popular mood could swing. Even if it doesn’t, Iran’s theocrats will not make it easy. More brave Iranians will be injured, and more will die, before the regime can be overthrown. There will be more chaos throughout the Middle East as Tehran attempts to lash out.
There are risks, yes. But there is also a hope: that Iranians, finally free after 47 years, can join in the fight against the dark forces of authoritarianism.