For pro sports, March 11 marks the demarcation between the old world and the new. At 9:37 p.m. ET, after one of its players tested positive for COVID-19, the National Basketball Association suspended its season. The following morning, the National Hockey League did likewise. Within days, a planet’s worth of games were on hold.
Two months later, the first professional sports are beginning to tentatively reemerge, from baseball in South Korea to soccer in Germany. Major League Baseball this week said it wants to start in July. The NHL and NBA aim to finish their interrupted seasons this summer.
Like all businesses, sports will not be the same for months, and possibly years. If and when games are played, they will take place in empty arenas and stadiums. There will be no fans in the stands.
The return of sports, even if only on TV, would be a step toward the restoration of normalcy. The challenge is figuring out how to safely play.
This weekend’s opening of the Bundesliga, Germany’s professional soccer league, could serve as a roadmap. It will be the first big global league to come back to life. If its plan works, it could be the proof of concept.
But it will not be easy. Sports are an inherently intimate affair, sweaty bodies in close proximity and molecules flying everywhere. Locker rooms are crowded. Benches are tightly packed. For South Korean baseball players, the new reality prohibits spitting.
In South Korea and Germany, progress against the virus made it possible to consider the return of sports. The rate of new coronavirus infections peaked in Germany in early April, at about 5,000 a day, and fell sharply thereafter. The current daily rate is fewer than 1,000 new cases. In Canada, with slightly less than half Germany’s population, there were about 1,300 new cases per day, in the week from May 5 through May 11. The United States daily average over the same period was almost 23,000.
The return of the Bundesliga started with mass testing. Germany’s ample testing capacity was crucial. Teams underwent a seven-day training camp in isolation; players were tested before entering. As games get underway, there will be a maximum of 300 people in the stadium, including players, staff, officials and broadcasters. Players will spread out across multiple locker rooms.
Already, there have been setbacks. A second-division team will miss its first two games, after all of its players were quarantined following two recent positive tests.
In hockey and basketball, a jump straight to some form of playoffs is probable. There is talk of a 24-team NHL playoffs and among the NBA’s scenarios are truncated early playoff rounds. To reduce the chance of infection, both leagues are planning to limit travel. Multiple teams may be based in one city. In baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays could play their “home” games at the team’s spring training base in Florida.
The NHL is considering just four locations. Many cities are eager to host. In British Columbia, where COVID-19 numbers are better than most of the continent, Premier John Horgan has pitched Vancouver. The NBA, meanwhile, is assessing Disney World in Florida as its single venue for all games.
For both leagues, a critical mass of courts and ice, along with nearby hotels and practice venues, will be needed, to create a relatively secure bubble within which to operate. There are many other small details, such as the tight benches in hockey. Players who normally sit shoulder to shoulder need more space.
Testing is the biggest challenge. Canada and the U.S. are still testing at far below the necessary level among the general population and at-risk group, and reopening pro sports will add a whole new cohort of people who need to be regularly tested. Leagues cannot reopen without necessary testing, but if widespread testing is not fully available to nursing homes, hospitals and the population at large, pro athletes cannot take precedence.
Basketball and hockey were quick to shut down, and were right to do so. Fans are understandably hungry for their return. When the season was frozen, the Toronto Raptors were among the NBA’s best and chasing another league title, and several Canadian NHL teams were in playoff contention.
The one cold certainty in all this?
Even if championships are won, there will be no parades. Not yet.
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