Prime Minister Mark Carney has committed Canada to an ambitious goal of 5 per cent defence spending by 2035.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Canada has joined NATO members in committing to the most significant collective military investment since the Cold War. Ottawa now needs to avoid repeating the mistake it finished making just last month.
That would be a years-long pantomime of making commitments on the world stage without a plan to support them – a parade of empty promises that has left Canada one of the few NATO members still short of the alliance’s defence spending target.
Prime Minister Mark Carney addressed that gap in an announcement last month that defence spending would hit 2 per cent of GDP this fiscal year. Now, with Canada committed to an even more ambitious goal – 5 per cent by 2035 – he must break from the missteps of his predecessor, whose delays and deflections earned Canada the shameful distinction of NATO laggard.
For years, former prime minister Justin Trudeau vowed Canada would fulfill its promise but never built a roadmap: no internal benchmarks, timelines or accountability.
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When the government did try to project progress, it did so largely through changes in accounting rather than actual investment. In 2017, it began reclassifying costs – military pensions, certain RCMP operations, Coast Guard activities – as defence spending. These adjustments are allowed under NATO rules, but had no impact on readiness or operational capacity.
Shifting around numbers put a positive spin on Canada’s direction but painted over the fact that Ottawa was unable to follow through on a promise to fix procurement – a mistake that continues to leave much of the Armed Forces’ equipment outdated or non-operational.
With his path to meeting the initial target of 2 per cent, Mr. Carney has shown a more serious approach. But it is critical that he avoid repeating the mistakes of his predecessor, most crucially by presenting a year-by-year plan.
Such a roadmap will ensure Canada is at the table as NATO confronts a precarious era of threats from Russia and that country’s strategic ties with China. Together, leaders wrote in their joint communiqué, members will ensure the readiness is in place to “protect our one billion citizens, defend the alliance, and safeguard our freedom and democracy.”
Of course, the alliance, including Canada, spent years ducking the earlier 2-per-cent commitment. But any suggestion that a repeat is in the offing ignores the facts on the ground.
Poland, already Europe’s top defence spender by proportion, is at 4.7 per cent of GDP – up from 2.7 per cent in 2022. Germany has launched a €100-billion military fund on its path to reaching 5 per cent six years ahead of target. Finland, which shares NATO’s longest land border with Russia, is stockpiling landmines, enlarging its reservist pool and constructing a NATO command headquarters. The Baltic States are building up their defences rapidly, within sight of the Russian army.
And Canada, which demonstrated last month that the money exists when it needs to – rather than when it’s politically palatable – is finally catching up with its peers.
Crucially, that will have the effect of bringing its Armed Forces to a functional level.
Only one submarine in a four-vessel fleet is currently functional. A planned replacement for the aging CF-18 fighter jets has been under way for more than two decades. Most units are either not trained, staffed or equipped to deploy when needed, a 2023 report from the Department of National Defence found. Surveillance gaps and infrastructure shortfalls in the Arctic have left its northern defences heavily reliant on U.S. support.
NATO’s new pledge offers a chance to reverse these trends. But success will require more than spending money. Procurement systems must have enforceable timelines and accountability for delivery. Readiness targets must be met, not papered over by reclassification or accounting adjustments.
Emerging from the summit, Mr. Carney called the new commitment “the most significant increase in Canadian defence spending since the Second World War.” He framed it as both a security obligation and an economic one – designed to “stimulate Canadian industry, develop skills and grow our innovation economy.”
That is the right ambition. But ambition without a plan is a promise destined to be broken.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly said Prime Minister Mark Carney announced earlier this month that defence spending would hit 2 per cent of GDP this fiscal year. The announcement was made in June.