Before Ottawa rolled out its new immigration levels plan in October, the federal government relied heavily on labour-market data to identify shortages and to fill the gaps in the work force. Oddly enough, that process led to perfect round numbers for annual targets.
In its most recent plan, the government uses five criteria – with the final one being Canada’s capacity to settle, integrate and retain newcomers. That is too faint a nod toward a critical shortage of housing in major urban centres.
The new federal targets aim to reduce immigration levels (from record highs) over the next three years. But those reductions won’t fix chronic, countrywide challenges around housing and health care. Canada needs to ensure that its immigration targets match our ability to provide the fundamentals in communities that are stretched by high numbers of new arrivals.
On the Brink
This is part of a series on the continuing challenges facing Canada’s immigration system.
Overview: Our pillars of immigration are crumbling
Labour: Focus on the workers and skills we need the most
Border: Ottawa must change old thinking about a new frontier
Refugees: A new approach is needed, not just more money
Enforcement: Incentives to follow the rules are not enough
The federal Conservatives want Canada to set immigration targets based on this country’s capacity to absorb newcomers, based on the availability of housing, jobs and health care. The Tories are on the right track. Capacity – most easily measured by the state of the housing market – should be the yardstick for the federal government’s targets for economic migrants, in addition to its humanitarian commitments.
The reduced targets are overdue. Unchecked growth has soured Canadians’ support for immigration, as gaps in housing supply, access to health care and other social services have grown.
For the past three decades, a majority of Canadians have supported the country’s immigration levels, according to EKOS Research, but a poll last March showed that long-standing support has badly eroded: 57 per cent of respondents said Canada has taken in too many newcomers.
Ottawa and the provinces need to ensure that we have the homes, doctors and school desks to support a growing population. But the capacity gaps will remain without new investments.
In November, the Parliamentary Budget Officer assessed the impact of the new plan on the national housing shortage. By the PBO’s count, reducing immigration levels between 2025 and 2027 as Ottawa intends would close Canada’s housing gap in 2030 by 45 per cent – or 534,000 units. That leaves a shortfall of 658,000 homes by the end of this decade.
Canada is a diverse and inclusive nation that has prospered thanks to its immigration policies. To rescue this important program, Ottawa should show Canadians that its immigration targets will not add more strain to the housing crisis, as a start. That means bolder commitments to boost housing, but Canada also needs to distribute those resources fairly.
Ottawa has responded to concerns about the costs of absorbing migrants in Quebec with $750-million to help pay for housing and other services associated with the influx of asylum claimants at Roxham Road. In addition, Quebec got 44 per cent of federal interim housing funding meant to help with the cost of settling asylum seekers, a figure roughly equal to Quebec’s share of asylum seekers.
But Quebec is not the province with the highest proportion of non-permanent residents in the country. That would be British Columbia, where roughly one-tenth of the population does not have permanent residency. In 2023, B.C. accepted 5 per cent of Canada’s total number of asylum seekers, but it received just 0.6 per cent of the federal housing support. Not surprisingly, B.C. Premier David Eby dismissed Ottawa’s suggestion that his province take a larger share of asylum seekers as a “daft” idea.
Just two years ago, the B.C. government welcomed newcomers with open arms. Mr. Eby changed his tune in the spring of 2023, when B.C. set a new record with the arrival of more than 53,000 individuals from countries outside of Canada over a period of three months.
The province could not keep up with the demand for services and housing, particularly in border communities such as Surrey. It was in ridings like those in Surrey where the B.C. NDP lost the most seats in the October provincial election.
The lesson for the federal Liberals, who will face voters next year, is that immigration and housing are intertwined crises – and should be dealt with as such.
Podcast: A new diagnosis for immigration
How can Canada reach a better balance on immigration, housing and the labour market? Editorials editor Patrick Brethour spoke with The Decibel about the issues explored in this series. Subscribe for more episodes.