In this file photo three potential coronavirus, COVID-19, vaccines are kept in a tray at Novavax labs in Gaithersburg, Maryland on March 20, 2020, one of the labs developing a vaccine for the coronavirus, COVID-19.ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/Getty Images
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced us all to focus on a new set of daily tribulations – working from a kitchen-table home office, trying to stay safe in jobs that require public contact, getting the kids to school and back, budgeting on a reduced income, or remaining calm when you walk halfway to the corner store before realizing you forgot to bring a mask. Those sorts of things.
It’s impossible not to ask ourselves, when will this be over?
At the moment, the prognosis is uncertain. Cases are surging across the country, and in many parts of Canada, a second pandemic wave appears to be already here.
As well, the necessary reopening of schools has been challenging and at times haphazard, especially in provinces such as Ontario, which failed to have adequate testing in place to meet the inevitable demand caused by rules requiring schoolchildren with a runny nose to get tested.
“We’re on the brink of a fall that could be much worse than the spring,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned in his national television address on Wednesday. Hopefully not, and we’d even go so far as to say probably not. But it is possible. Though all provinces are aiming to avoid another lockdown by focusing on targeted measures, if the right precautions are not taken, the month of October could resemble the month of April.
The challenge is that humans still lack widespread immunity to the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19. It is out there, looking for its next host, and it isn’t going away on its own.
Canadians will almost certainly be living through the winter much as they are today – wearing masks, scrubbing hands and limiting social contacts. The risk of another spike will remain. As a result, businesses that congregate people indoors – notably restaurants and bars – will almost certainly continue to be subject to restrictive rules, reduced revenues and closings.
But while today’s threats will remain in the months to come, if governments do the right things, those threats can be managed and minimized. There are reasons to be hopeful.
What’s more, there is an ever-increasing probability there will be at least one fully tested vaccine that Health Canada can consider for approval next year. With at least seven already in promising late-stage human trials, the consensus is that there could be something on the market by next summer.
There won’t be enough of any given vaccine to instantly inoculate every Canadian – Ottawa has signed procurement deals with a number of manufacturers, but ramping up production will take time. At the very least, though, there should be enough to vaccinate health care workers and vulnerable populations, such as seniors, in 2021. That will go a long way toward limiting community transmission.
There will be more testing available, too. New tests are coming, including saliva-based ones that can be done at home, and which are already being used in the United States. As well, Ontario made testing for asymptomatic people available in pharmacies as of Friday, something Alberta did months ago, and which all provinces should do. Encourage the private sector to help meet the national testing challenge by paying for privately administered tests under medicare.
In the coming months, getting tested should be routine – routine enough, in fact, to make it possible to test airline passengers coming to Canada, and people crossing our land border. Contact tracing should also be quick and diligent. If that’s not the case, it will be hard to put into words what a cockup this will represent, given all the lip service elected officials have paid to the need for rapid testing and tracing.
Also positive: Doctors are getting better at treating COVID-19. In some European countries, weeks of higher case counts have yet to result in a comparable increase in the number of deaths. That may be in part because many of those infected in the recent surge are younger; it is also because of better medical knowhow and treatments, such as remdesivir, for patients with severe symptoms.
That said, the fall is going to be tough. “It’s all too likely we won’t be gathering for Thanksgiving, but we still have a shot at Christmas," the PM said Wednesday.
That’s on him and his provincial analogues. Yes, individual Canadians have to do their part, by wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings. But this public-health emergency only ends when governments do their job.
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