Now that the two parties with the only chance of forming the next government have finally released costed platforms, it’s possible to reach a conclusion about their commitment to spending 2 per cent of gross domestic product on national defence, the current goal set for all NATO members.
The conclusion? Neither intends to reach it. Not over the next four fiscal years, and perhaps not even by 2030, the arbitrary deadline Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre both set in their platforms.
Worse yet, that 2-per-cent figure is about to rise, which means the next prime minister of Canada is going to look rather ridiculous when he fails to meet a target that is no longer relevant.
NATO heads of state first agreed to the 2-per-cent goal in 2014, after Russia invaded Crimea. Since then, Russia has launched a second and far more deadly invasion of Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to pull out of NATO and mouthing Kremlin talking points about Russia’s illegal war, and China has become more aggressive, eyeing Taiwan and sending ships into the Arctic.
NATO officials are now saying that, in a world where the U.S. is no longer an ally, member states will need to spend as much as 3.5 per cent of their GDP on defence – a goal likely to be approved at an alliance summit in June.
European NATO members are now rapidly increasing their defence spending. Meanwhile, Canada is way down the list at 1.37 per cent of GDP, according to NATO. It is one of a shrinking number of laggard countries, and soon it could even be running dead last in military spending.
Just to get to 2 per cent, Canada would have to double its NATO-eligible defence spending, which in fiscal 2024-25 is set at $40.1-billion, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer. The PBO said last year that Ottawa would need to spend $81.9-billion by 2032 to meet the 2-per-cent NATO goal.
The upshot in this election campaign is that Canada’s two main parties have set themselves a defence-spending target they know will likely no longer be relevant in a few months time – and even then they can’t hit it.
Canada's national interest needs new energy
Of the two, the Liberals have the higher projections in their platform, with additional defence spending of $30.9-billion over the next four fiscal years, ending in 2028-29. Based on the PBO’s estimates, that would leave Canada roughly $10-billion short of the mark.
The Conservatives, per their own costing, would increase defence spending by $17.4-billion over the same period, $23-billion short of the mark.
This paints a picture of a NATO ally that is hardly more dependable than the United States, but that’s apparently not a major concern for either party.
Sure, they talk a good game in their platforms – about increasing recruitment in the Canadian Armed Forces, opening new bases in the North and spending billions on equipment and weaponry.
The Conservatives say they would improve procurement, which in the past has been a bureaucratic basket case, by centralizing it in a single secretariat under one minister.
The Liberals say they’d create an entire new agency to streamline procurement, and would also establish the “Bureau of Research, Engineering and Advanced Leadership in Science” (BOREALIS – get it?) to develop weapons and surveillance technology.
But they are both far more interested in giving tax breaks to voters than they are in doing Canada’s share in the fight for liberal democracy during dangerous times.
Three of the Conservatives’ signature tax cuts in their platform will reduce government revenues by more than $50-billion over the next four fiscal years.
On the Liberal side, two of their key tax cuts will cost the government $32-billion over the same period.
Canada clearly has the money to show more than rhetorical solidarity with its NATO partners, but the next prime minister would rather stick the cash in voters’ pockets than oblige them to make sacrifices in the name of peace, security and democracy.
Under either a Liberal or the Conservative government, a laggard Canada is about to fall even farther behind its NATO allies. When it comes to protecting the free world over the next decade, this country won’t even be running in the right race.