California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in the Bay Area last week. Canadians should not mistake friendly rhetoric for a repudiation of the Democrats' protectionist streak, the editorial board writes.Jeff Chiu/The Associated Press
Canadians with a dim view of Donald Trump and his Republican Party might hope that the Democrats will reverse what the President has wrought on the Canadian economy if they gain control of Congress at the midterms in November or win the White House in 2028.
But this is no guarantee. Take it from a likely contender for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Last month, California Gov. Gavin Newsom was asked to assure Canadians that Democrats would reverse Mr. Trump’s tariffs. “I can’t guarantee that,” he said, “but I can guarantee you nothing like this, the level of disrespect ... those days are numbered.”
Congressional Democrats have also conspicuously focused their criticisms of Mr. Trump’s tariffs for being “reckless” or not being “coherent” or for circumventing Congress, as opposed to the way they have detonated a relationship with an integrated supply-chain partner and undermined shared prosperity.
These responses underscore the reality that Democrats might strike a less grating tone than Republicans, but would not reject protectionist policies. A tonal shift would certainly be welcome in Canada amid the trade war, as would a shift away from the Republicans’ brazenly imperialist ambitions, and their belligerent foreign policy that carves the world up into spheres of influence and through the hard power of economic coercion.
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But Canadians should not mistake more friendly rhetoric for a repudiation of the longstanding protectionist streak that exists in the Democratic Party.
Despite his rivalry with Mr. Trump, Joe Biden maintained his predecessor’s efforts to restore U.S. manufacturing jobs, creating incentives for American-made goods that forced Ottawa to lobby for exemptions. Mr. Biden also kept his predecessor’s tariffs on around US$350-billion of Chinese goods in place, while imposing 100-per-cent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, putting pressure to Canada to follow suit; Ottawa announced it would match Washington’s efforts just one day after Mr. Biden’s national security advisor spoke to Canadian cabinet officials.
Mr. Biden’s trade representative Katherine Tai also did not appear to suggest that renewal of the USMCA was a fait accompli, saying in 2024 that “the whole point [of the review process] is to maintain a certain level of discomfort, which may involve a certain level of uncertainty.”
Bill Clinton helped to launch the free-trade era when he signed NAFTA into law in 1993, but it received more nays than yeas from his own party in the House and Senate. Two decades later, Barack Obama – who threatened to withdraw from NAFTA during the 2008 campaign – had his Trans-Pacific Partnership blocked by Congressional Democrats, too.
Meanwhile, the Democratic socialist wing of the party is now on the rise, and many have long railed against free-trade agreements, viewing them as drivers of job loss and the hollowing-out of labour unions.
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While Democratic presidents have long leveraged U.S. military and economic might, they generally did so to serve as the guarantors of the international norms and multilateral institutions that Mr. Trump has trashed. Perhaps Democrats may do so again, understanding that this has its own value that cannot be measured in trade-deficit sums.
But U.S. debt is swelling past US$40-trillion and the bond market is roiling, increasing the pressure on Washington to raise revenues in the years to come. It is impossible to predict how America might respond to keep itself on top.
Even if the Democrats want to be Canada’s saviours – a Democratic White House might work assiduously to rebuild trust, remove tariffs and act in good faith toward mutual interests, including making things more affordable for both Canadian and American households – they cannot issue guarantees.
It will take more than four or eight years to repair the relationship, and every U.S. election would be an opportunity for a Republican leader to gut any progress. After all, the imperial nativism Mr. Trump trumpets is a feature, not a bug, particularly in the Republican Party. And if only one of a country’s two national parties can be a reasonable partner, that still makes it by definition an erratic nation.
No one is riding to this country’s rescue. Even if the Democrats do make a difference, that will not reduce the urgency to make Canada less reliant on a United States that has become less reliable.