Iranians protest in Kermanshah, Iran on Thursday.KAMRAN/AFP/Getty Images
Day after day, throngs of brave Iranians are taking to the streets to demand the end of the oppressive rule of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime. They know the simple act of joining the protests could put their lives at risk – reportedly almost 650 protesters have been killed so far, and worryingly, the numbers are rapidly rising.
Nobody knows what will happen in the days and weeks to come, but one thing is clear – one day, the brutal Iranian regime will fall, and when that happens, it will be the cause of joyous celebration in Iran, in Canada, and around the world.
There have been waves of protests in Iran over the years, but this one is different. It began in late December when merchants in Tehran’s bazaars organized a strike in reaction to the plunge of Iran’s currency, the rial, to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar. Bazaar merchants initiated the 1979 revolution, and their anger about soaring inflation and economic mismanagement is felt across the country.
The protests have a wider base than the 2022 demonstrations that were sparked by the ruthless and repressive treatment of women. The protests have spread to universities as well as major centres and towns across the country.
The list of injustices is long: Iranians are angry about corruption, the imploding economy, and the lack of freedoms. Shortages in water and electricity have highlighted the regime’s incompetence. Warnings were recently issued that parts of Tehran without water might need to be evacuated.
The attacks by Israel and the U.S. on Iran in June revealed the regime’s limited military power, while the weakening of the country’s regional proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, and the overthrow of Syria’s Assad regime, have increased Iran’s isolation. The reimposition of international sanctions due to Iran’s defiance on nuclear expansion has strangled the economy. Fresh threats about further military action from U.S. President Donald Trump put the leadership at risk.
The protests are shaking the regime, but for now, it has a firm grasp on power. Instead of reform, it’s choosing more repression. It has arrested more than 10,000 people, and warned that anyone taking part in protests will be killed.
U.S. military action could bolster the regime, by allowing it to tarnish protesters as agents of a foreign government. Ultimately, the fate of Iran will be settled by Iranians marching in the streets, and how much stomach members of the security forces have to murder their fellow citizens.
Longer term, there will also need to be a more defined opposition, with a shared vision beyond just overthrowing the current leaders. Immediate change is far from assured, but there is hope right now in the streets of Iran, and at demonstrations around the world in support.
The regime says communication with the U.S. is open after a weekend of protests challenging clerical rule.
Reuters
A regime change would not only stop the Iranian government from continuing to terrorize its own people – it would also be a major blow to terrorism around the world. Iranian-linked militias in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen have fuelled horrific violence that is causing tremendous global instability. Iran has also directed antisemitic attacks in Australia.
The pain from Iran’s actions has been felt directly in Canada, with the 2020 shooting down of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, which killed 55 citizens and 30 permanent residents. Grieving relatives in Canada who have spoken out have been harassed by Iranian authorities. Iranian-Canadian journalists have also reported threats from the regime.
The federal government has condemned Iran’s brutal repression of the protests, but fell short of promising specific action. Ottawa should in concert with allies, make it clear to Iranian officials, as they ponder mass executions, that they will be held accountable for any crimes they commit.
Canada also needs to ensure it continues to keep doors open to Iranians fleeing persecution, while blocking regime members from entering the country. Canadians from Iran have complained in the past that lax rules have allowed former regime members to land here.
The Iranian government can cling to power through violence for now, but without buy-in from its people, it is increasingly weak. Ayatollah Khamenei is 86 years old, and while his exit from the scene won’t necessarily cause the government to fall, it will create uncertainties for the regime, which has long prioritized regional meddling and religious dogma over the needs of its people.
It may take days, months or years, but one day, freedom will return to Iran after too many dark decades of repression. That day cannot come too soon.