Transport trucks approach the Canada/USA border crossing in Windsor, Ont. on March 21, 2020.Rob Gurdebeke/The Canadian Press
There has been a lot of chatter about the federal Liberals’ $1.3-billion plan for beefing up Canada’s border controls in response to the threat of tariffs from incoming U.S. president Donald Trump.
Statements from the government and much of the coverage in the media leave the impression that Ottawa is leaping into action. After all, $1.3-billion remains a somewhat impressive sum, and there is a clear sense of urgency in the tone of last month’s economic and fiscal update. “Public safety and the integrity of our immigration system must be protected,” the document intones.
There is, however, one small problem: there is no $1.3-billion plan, if a plan is to be thought of in terms of “things you intend to do any time soon.” In the current fiscal year – the one in which Mr. Trump is thundering about imposing economy-smothering tariffs later this month – the Liberals are proposing to spend just $81-million out of that $1.3-billion. The overwhelming majority of expenditures comes years from now.
There is a similar lackadaisical pace to some defence expenditures (Canada’s low military spending being another key gripe of Mr. Trump, not to mention other members of NATO). The spring budget highlights a $1.8-billion plan to build up an ammunition reserve and expand Canada’s capacity to make artillery shells. That sounds prudent at a time when Russia is still relentlessly shelling Ukraine.
Except that just $15-million is slated to be spent in the current year. Nearly three-quarters of the total won’t be touched until after fiscal 2027.
More broadly, the Liberals have claimed they intend to boost Canada’s defence expenditures to 2 per cent of gross domestic product by 2032, but they have not spelled out how they intend to manage that feat.
The same pattern shows up in more strictly domestic initiatives. The spring budget, for instance, touted the launch of a national pharmacare program, with $1.5-billion allocated over five years.
How much would be spent this year, by this government? Just $59-million, or less than 4 per cent of the total.
It’s the same story with the Canada Disability Benefit, where just $43-million out of a total of $4.9-billion in funding will be spent in the current fiscal year, according to the spring budget.
Now, none of this is particularly new for the Liberals. And certainly other governments have chosen to lump together several years of expenditures in order to make an initiative seem more substantial.
But a number of factors make the Liberals’ budgetary habits particularly problematic. First, there is the stage of life of this Parliament. Whether opposition parties succeed in forcing an election soon or a vote takes place this fall, the Liberals’ current term is nearly played out.
It would be one thing for a freshly elected government to map out a fiscal plan that ramps up through its term. Then, at least, there would be some accountability to voters. It is quite another thing for a long-in-the-tooth administration to fantasize about programs blossoming a half-decade hence.
Second, the propensity for bragging now and paying later underscores just how much this government values the announcement of a policy or program over its competent execution. For the Liberals, it’s enough that they can say that they have launched a national pharmacare program (and then be able to accuse the Conservatives of conspiring to dismantle it). Never mind that only two drugs are covered, and that there is no blueprint for expansion.
All of that would be disheartening enough if the only effect were to dupe Canadians ahead of this year’s federal vote. Unfortunately for the Liberals (and even more so for Canada), talking points and a slow walk on spending are not a sufficient response to growing military and political dangers.
The Canadian army needs bullets, artillery shells and modern air defences now, not at the end of the decade. Ottawa needs to show its allies that it has a plan to meet its NATO commitments now, not seven years and two elections hence.
It will be difficult to deter Mr. Trump from his anarchistic policies, whatever Ottawa does. One thing is for certain, however: token gestures – such as spending $81-million on border security – are more likely to be a provocation than a solution. Today’s problems require solutions from today’s government, not some other government years in the future.