In the spring of 1919, the worst of the global influenza pandemic had passed when the Montreal Canadiens won the National Hockey League championship. The team then headed west to play the Seattle Metropolitans of the Pacific Coast Hockey Association, for the Stanley Cup. The series was tied at two wins apiece, plus one tie, when many players fell ill. Nearly the entire Canadiens team was sick with the flu, and they offered to forfeit, but the Metropolitans refused victory on that basis. The series was cancelled, and one player, Montreal’s Joe Hall, died a few days later.
To this day, the Cup marks that difficult year with the words, “Series Not Completed.”
A century later, amid a continuing pandemic, the NHL is readying its return to action, to complete a season suspended since mid-March. Twenty-four teams will play out of hub cities, Edmonton and Toronto. Locations in the United States were considered and then rejected owing to the virus situation south of the border. Games start next Tuesday.
Ottawa waived the two-week quarantine for teams arriving by private plane from outside Canada, but players require three negative tests in the week before flying, and they will be isolated from the public on arrival. The NHL is trying to establish somewhat hermetic bubbles. But the NHL’s two bubbles are not quite as self-contained as the National Basketball Association, with the entire league isolated in one spot, Florida’s Disney World.
The most important safety measure in both leagues is the ban on fans in the stands. The odds of a superspreader event are minimal, since all games will be played in empty environs. That’s the model used by Germany’s top soccer league, the Bundesliga. No fans, and numerous other safety measures, helped the league restart in mid-May and safely finish its season earlier this month.
In Florida, NBA scrimmages started on Wednesday, and the league reported no positive COVID-19 cases in its latest round of testing. Still, as the virus rages in Florida – there are reports of regular people waiting two weeks for test results – the NBA has been likened to “the royals on the hill,” with preferred access to tests and care.
Back in Canada, the situation is better. However, given many fewer cases in Edmonton and Toronto than in Florida, even a small outbreak would matter all the more. The 12 teams in each city will have a total of about 600 players and staff – that means a need for at least 1,200 daily tests.
In theory, that shouldn’t be a problem, but Alberta has become Canada’s COVID-19 hotspot. Because of a sudden increase in cases, and thousands of people asking to be tested, The Globe reported this week that a previously robust testing system is now “overwhelmed.”
The NHL has so far reported 45 positive tests – about 5 per cent of players. Crossing the border only once, with precautions before and after, appears to make resuming play a low and manageable risk. Major League Baseball’s plan was for the Toronto Blue Jays and other teams to travel from city to city, and repeatedly cross the border, which is why Ottawa rightly said no to the Jays playing in Toronto.
There are a few things in the NHL plan that raise eyebrows, notably the league’s decision to minimize public disclosure of the one thing the public is worried about. There will be regular updates on virus test results, but if a player isn’t playing, it won’t be revealed whether that’s because he tested positive.
The league also rejected Vancouver as a potential hub city, even though the infection rate in British Columbia is lower than Alberta or Ontario. Provincial Health Officer Bonnie Henry said if NHLers fell ill, subsequent contact tracing “might mean suspension of part of a series for a period of time.” The NHL looked elsewhere.
The goals of public health, when looking at reopening the economy and restarting businesses, cannot be reducing the risk of virus transmission to zero, at all costs. It’s a balance. It’s about reducing risks to low and manageable levels, while protecting those most at risk.
By that measure, the risk to Canadians from restarting the NHL season appear to be minimal, thanks to safety protocols that will keep fans out of arenas, and players in a bubble. Constant caution is going to be essential, and that has to include a willingness to back down from established plans if there’s a major outbreak. But for now, it looks like it’s safe to drop the puck.