As the B.C. government's spending spree continues without effective opposition, the question for Premier Eby and his party must be: how do they think this ends?DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Thirty-four years ago next month, the BC NDP swept to power, its 1991 victory kicking off the start of what would turn out to be a disastrous decade for the province, and an even worse one for the party.
Persistent deficits drove up B.C.’s debt, and economic growth stagnated. The party squeaked out a win in 1996, with the right-of-centre opposition split three ways. But by 2001, the right had united under the BC Liberal banner and the NDP were immolated, reduced to just two seats.
It would take 16 years for the memory of the 90s NDP show to fade and for voters to return to the party. (Even then, it was a near thing, with the BC Liberals falling just one seat short of being able to hold on to power.)
John Horgan charted a conspicuously different course than his 1990s predecessors, with a focus on fiscal prudence. Even the pandemic didn’t knock him off that path for long. By 2022, when he handed over the premier’s office to David Eby, British Columbia was headed for a $3-billion surplus.
And then the rerun of that 90s show began. Under Mr. Eby, that surplus evaporated. Since then, the province has plunged deep into the red, with the most recent quarterly update showing this year’s deficit rising to $11.6-billion from the earlier forecast of $10.9-billion. But for a one-time legal settlement, the provincial deficit would have clocked in at a record $14.3-billion.
The outlook gets worse from there, with the projected deficit up sharply from the budget forecast in the following two fiscal years. All told, the BC NDP spending spree means that taxpayer-supported debt is set to rise to 35.5 per cent of gross domestic product by fiscal 2028, more than double the level of fiscal 2023. Or to put it a different way: during the pandemic, the Horgan government added $13-billion in taxpayer-supported debt. Two years from now, the Eby government plans to add nearly double that amount – $23-billion.
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This week, Finance Minister Brenda Bailey declined to even name a date for returning the budget to balance in a panel discussion at the annual convention of the Union of British Columbia Municipalities. The plans laid out by the government – $1.5-billion in spending restraint over three years and a hiring freeze – are a bad joke, coming after years of massive spending increases, bureaucratic bloat and outsized raises for civil servants.
All of that should allow the BC Conservative opposition to pummel the government. Instead, the opposition is busy punching itself in the face.
In yet another echo of the 1990s, the right-of-centre opposition is splintering, giving the NDP the opportunity to continue its spendthrift ways.
Three decades ago, the implosion of the Social Credit party led to a fractured right. The NDP managed to win a bare majority while losing the popular vote. (Five years later, the BC Liberals won more than 58 per cent of the popular vote, with close to a clean sweep of seats.)
In 2025, the B.C. Conservatives keep losing caucus members, most recently the high-profile MLA from Surrey South, Elenore Sturko, ejected from caucus ahead of her questioning the results of a leadership review of John Rustad, in which he won 70 per cent of the vote.
That impressive sounding number dissolves under scrutiny. Just 1,268 party members, out of a total of 9,000, voted. Of those, just under 900 people backed Mr. Rustad – in a province of 5.7 million people. Unsurprisingly, caucus turmoil continues.
If Mr. Rustad can’t effectively govern his caucus or party, it’s unclear why voters would consider him for the job of premier. It may take a 1996-type loss for the political coalition aligned against the NDP to effectively re-coalesce.
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In the meantime, Mr. Eby’s spending spree continues without effective opposition. The question for the Premier and his party must be: How do they think this ends?
The party is clearly unwilling to contemplate the kind of action needed to halt the dangerous acceleration in the growth of the province’s debt. On Tuesday, Ms. Bailey did acknowledge that current efforts won’t be enough to “bend the curve toward balance.” Something more, left unstated by the Minister, will need to be done.
Barring a volte-face from the government, that something more is likely to be marching orders from the bond market after the NDP finishes thoroughly demolishing the province’s credit rating and any vestige of its fiscal competence.