In the debate over how many immigrants Canada should admit, we need to remember one stark truth: this country has one of the lowest birth rates in the world.
Canada’s fertility rate fell to 1.26 in 2023, far below the 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population, making us one of the “lowest-low” fertility countries, according to Statistics Canada.
Our fertility rate has been steadily declining for years, and probably declined further in 2024. Many countries with very low fertility – including Italy (1.2), Poland (1.16) and Japan (1.2) – are losing population. Canada would soon be losing population as well, were it not for immigration.
While it must be a matter of the highest priority for federal and provincial governments to bring under control the runaway train of temporary foreign workers and international students entering this country, our governments should also be encouraging Canadians to have more babies, in order to ease the economic and social strains of our aging population.
According to various studies, the number of children people desire is often higher than the number they end up having. There can be several reasons for this. By the time a woman has progressed in her relationships and career to the point where she is ready to become a mother, she may have reached an age when having children is more difficult. From the 1950s through the 1970s, the average age of a mother at first birth was 24. Today it is 32.
The cost of raising a child, especially the cost of child care, can be a deterrent. To help with that, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government increased direct supports through the Canada Child Benefit, as well as national child care subsidies.
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While that program has made affordable child care available to more couples, it has provided only a fraction of the promised available spaces, and it risks squeezing out private, for-profit providers. In future, enhancing tax credits and other direct supports would maximize parental choice and autonomy – and would be fairer.
There are other programs government could consider, such as extending parental leave while encouraging both parents to share time off work, along with improving aid for individuals and couples who seek in vitro fertilization and other fertility treatments.
That said, none of these policies has succeeded in reversing declining fertility rates in Canada or elsewhere around the world. But they may slow the decline, and in any case are valuable supports for women in the workforce.
Such policies are the polar opposite of a pernicious new impetus that encourages women to return to the role of mothers and homemakers, rather than pursuing careers. So-called “trad wife” influencers are popular on social media, while anti-feminist politicians and activists are becoming increasingly common.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol – who tried but failed to impose martial law last month – ran and won on a platform that blamed the feminist movement for his country’s ultra-low birth rate. His victory was secured, in part, through the support of young men who are frustrated by their lack of economic opportunity and security.
Hungary’s government is paying women to stay home and have babies, with payouts rising with each new child. Hungarian Prime Minister/strongman Viktor Orban is behind Hungary’s pro-natalist policies, which aim to reverse his country’s population decline while keeping out immigrants.
President-elect Donald Trump is a huge fan of Mr. Orban. “There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orban,” he said last year. “He’s fantastic.” Vice president-elect J.D. Vance has praised the Hungarian approach of financial incentives to encourage larger families. “Why can’t we do that here?” he asked in 2021.
A key adviser to Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance is billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, who believes “population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming.”
Any woman who decides, as a matter of choice, to forgo career in favour of a life as a mother and homemaker deserves respect. But the key word is choice.
Governments should do everything within their power to help mothers have more children, without sacrificing their careers. The fight against population decline cannot come at the cost of the fight for women’s rights.