A resident looks on near a destroyed building in the southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 10, 2022, as Russia's invasion continues.ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO/Reuters
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will not end quickly. As much as we would like it to be otherwise, and regardless of any optimism generated by the fact Russia’s forces have met far more resistance than they expected, this is a war that could drag on for months, if not longer.
It has arguably already been going on for eight years, ever since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 was followed by its hybrid war in Donbas, on the eastern edge of Ukraine – a conflict that claimed more than 14,000 lives from 2014 through 2021. Vladimir Putin’s all-out invasion in February was really just the escalation of his long-standing grievances about Ukraine’s flirtation with NATO, and its tilt away from its former Soviet master toward Europe.
And while it’s easy (and correct) to scoff at Mr. Putin’s claim that his invasion is a “special military operation” designed to “de-nazify” Ukraine – the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish – it’s still a message that resonates with some Russians.
Most Russians remember the Second World War not as a global clash but as a conflict between their country and Germany; between Soviets and Nazis. The Eastern Front was the bloodiest and cruellest military confrontation in history, and there are Soviet nostalgists in Russia who, like Mr. Putin, still remember that some Ukrainians sided with the Nazis.
Mr. Putin’s lies are built on a foundation of grievance. Combined with his muzzling of Russian media, it means he could maintain enough domestic support to keep sending troops to die, and missiles to kill, in Ukraine for a long time.
And that in turn means that the sense of common purpose that the West has rediscovered since the invasion began must outlast Mr. Putin.
In 2014, Russia was able to march into Crimea without resistance. The West imposed the usual sanctions, but the lack of a stronger response emboldened Mr. Putin.
Then Donald Trump was elected U.S. president in 2016. He subsequently ignored clear evidence from his intelligence services that Russia had interfered with the election; he tacitly approved of the Crimea invasion and suggested he would lift related U.S. sanctions; he undermined NATO by threatening to pull out of the treaty; he did the same to the European Union by supporting Brexit; and he held a bizarre summit with Mr. Putin in Helsinki at which he bowed and scraped to the Russian leader.
Mr. Putin had to be thrilled. His own efforts to weaken NATO and the EU, both created after the Second World War to help preserve the peace between old enemies, was given an unexpected boost. He was winning.
Until Feb. 24, that is, when he invaded Ukraine. The West’s massive response has probably surprised the West itself; it has definitely surprised Mr. Putin.
Led by the United States, Western allies have imposed unprecedented financial sanctions on Russia’s leaders, on Mr. Putin’s friendly oligarchs, on Mr. Putin himself, on his family and on Russian banks. The sanctions have also hit imports, exports and travel.
Germany has suspended certification of Russia’s prized Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, and countries are actively searching for ways to lessen Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas, potentially a huge blow to the Russian economy.
And with the recent revelation of grotesque civilian atrocities committed by Russian troops, the West is imposing still more sanctions.
Meanwhile, allies are supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons and much-needed cash. A reinvigorated NATO has moved thousands of troops into forward positions in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The White House is sending 2,000 U.S.-based troops to Germany and Poland, and is moving 1,000 soldiers based in Germany to Romania.
Mr. Zelensky needs more, of course. He wants fighter jets, and he has called for the West to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. For the moment, that is a step too far. The West doesn’t want to give Mr. Putin an excuse to broaden his war.
But Mr. Putin’s invasion – the first of a sovereign European country since the Second World War – has reawakened the West and reinforced the value of the treaties and institutions that have preserved peace and liberal democracy in Europe for almost 80 years.
As war in Ukraine wears on, it is critical that the West remain emboldened and united, and build on what it has done so far. Let there be a silver lining in this disaster.
Keep your Opinions sharp and informed. Get the Opinion newsletter. Sign up today.