Former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi in February, 2008.ALBERTO PIZZOLI/AFP/Getty Images
Donald Trump has attracted comparisons with many of the world’s authoritarian strongmen, from Russia’s Vladimir Putin to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and, ironically, Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, predecessor of Nicolás Maduro, the dictator the U.S. President ordered forcibly removed from power last month.
A little over a year into Mr. Trump’s second term, many people are understandably counting the days until the next presidential election in 2028. But no matter who will be in the White House after that date, Canada shouldn’t count on its relationship with the United States to reset to the pre-Trump normal.
History’s cautionary tale in that scenario is what happened in Italy after voters finally soured on that country’s famous populist prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi.
For those who remember Mr. Berlusconi’s three scandal-ridden governments between 1994 and 2011 the similarities with the current occupant of the White House are uncanny. Like Mr. Trump, Mr. Berlusconi was a real estate magnate turned politician with a gift for media spectacle and a taste for boasting about his sexual exploits.
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Also like Mr. Trump, he waived away accusations of fraud and tax dodging and unabashedly used elected office to pursue his personal interests, lashing out against journalists and prosecutors who dared to ask unflattering questions.
But it’s what unfolded after Mr. Berlusconi’s fortunes faded (as Italy plunged into a particularly painful recession) that holds the more important lesson for Canada and other U.S. allies waiting out Trump 2.0.
Italy has had some competent governments since the end of the Berlusconi era, but its politics have continued to be dominated by populist parties peddling anti-establishment quackery to fix the country’s economic and social ills. Worse, anti-immigration sentiment has become mainstream.
The country’s current Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, has been surprisingly pragmatic on foreign and economic policy. But she has also arguably become the most powerful leader in a loose grouping of right-wing nationalists that have tellingly used the moniker of Make Europe Great Again.
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What’s encouraging is that Italy has not descended into authoritarianism. The concerning bit is that it has remained a hobbled democracy.
Mr. Berlusconi, just as other populist leaders with authoritarian tendencies, rose to power by seizing on a profound popular disillusionment with the status quo. His appeal was the promise of sweeping, get-it-done-no-matter-what change. His voters trusted in him more than in the democratic process. Once in power, he sowed further distrust in the institutions. When his aura faded, other populists, on the right and the left, sprung up from the same fertile ground.
Which brings us back to Mr. Trump. Even if the 47th President leaves the Oval Office at the end of his second term sans fanfare, there’s reason to worry about who will follow him.
Of course, it is tempting to dismiss the parallels with other countries. After all, the U.S. is, by most accounts, the world’s oldest democracy. It boasts a strong civil society. Public opinion has turned against Mr. Trump, yet protesters in Minneapolis and other cities targeted by his immigration crackdown have not turned violent. Meanwhile, more conservatives are starting to speak out against the President.
U.S. midterm elections are coming up in November. If voters castigate Mr. Trump, an emboldened Congress might rein in the administration until the changing of the guard in 2028.
One can also imagine a new 48th U.S. president launching a worldwide apology tour to patch up frayed security and trade relationships.
Even so, the question would be what the 49th or 50th president might be like. A popular rejection of Mr. Trump is unlikely, by itself, to restore the U.S. as the beacon of democracy and unwavering ally that Canada has relied on for decades.
A friendlier successor to Mr. Trump would be good news but should not be a reason for Ottawa to change course on trade and security policy. Canada should continue to diversify its economy, build up its military and generally work to reduce its dependence on the U.S.
Ottawa can hope that the next U.S. administration, and those that follow, will embark on the difficult task of patching up American democracy. What it should prepare for, though, is for the U.S. to remain a populist-driven source of geopolitical uncertainty well after Mr. Trump’s departure.