People skate past an opening in a fence at a closed section of the Rideau Canal Skateway, in Ottawa, on Jan. 21.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
The Elfstedentocht is a nearly 200-kilometre-long skating race on the canals of the northern Netherlands that captivates the nation and makes a folk hero of the victor.
It was a Brussels sprout farmer who won the last edition, in 1997. He may hold the title forever. The race can happen only when the ice freezes solidly enough. Climate change has raised fears that won’t ever happen again.
In Japan, Mt. Fuji experienced this year its longest snowless spell since records started being kept in the 19th century, sparking concerns about the future of a view that resonates deep within the national psyche. The snows atop Kilimanjaro, immortalized in literature and film, could be gone by the 2040s.
A similar sense of loss can be felt in Canada as our own outdoor traditions come under threat. The chance to skate, ski, attend a winter festival – even have an impromptu snowball fight – feels as though it could slip away. Unusually warm weather has already been forcing a reassessment of how we live our winter lives.
In Ottawa, the ice was not good enough on any day in the winter of 2022-2023 for the Rideau Canal to open to skating. One year later it opened for just 10 days. And this paltry total was only reached, according to information uncovered by CTV News, after officials relaxed the standard for what was considered thick enough ice.
A historic toboggan slide in Quebec City is resorting to refrigeration to save the season after losing one-third of its days last year.
In Toronto, City Hall communications people say they have no figures for how many days the rink in the square out front was open last year. But people passing by too often saw skaters splashing around on ice covered with shallow water.
Not being able to play outside in the cold may not rank as the most pressing concern in a world of war and disaster. But it’s not nothing. Canada remains at heart a winter country. Québécois singer Gilles Vigneault nailed it in 1965, penning the line “Mon pays, ce n’est pas un pays, c’est l’hiver.”
The gradual erosion of that winter casts a chill on the Canadian spirit. And it’s one more sign that climate change is not only an existential challenge that threatens the future, though it is that. It’s also changing the way we live now. From fire and flood risk to killer heat waves, climate change is making its presence felt today.
Weather data released earlier this month by EU researchers showed that this November was the second-warmest globally on record, behind only the same month last year. And 2024 is shaping up to be the warmest year on record. This year is also the first where average temperatures are on track to be at least 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the threshold signatories to the Paris Agreement aimed not to exceed.
While one or two years do not make a trend, the graph accompanying this data make a strong case. Although average temperatures fluctuate, the overall line has been going up since the 1970s. Records are being broken again and again.
Canadians hoping for a reprieve from the trend this year may experience a mixed bag. While the country’s winter is expected to be cooled by a La Nina pattern, the opposite of last year’s El Nino effect, Environment and Climate Change Canada says this will be weaker than normal because of climate change. However, that weakening will be offset in the west owing to fluctuations in Pacific Ocean temperatures, good news for ski resorts that struggled last year with a lack of snow. But farther east, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces can expect temperatures at or above normal.
There will certainly be some days this winter when the idea of a bit less cold will seem very appealing to Canadians. Being a winter nation doesn’t mean loving every howl of wind or each salt-stained shoe.
But if winter keeps warming, cherished traditions could fall by the wayside. Will the dream of a white Christmas in Canada change from being likely to something closer to the situation in the United Kingdom, where London hasn’t had snow on the 25th in 25 years?
With the cold comes experiences that sparkle in the memory. Imagine a winter without snowball fights in the playground. Or one in which you can’t cross-country ski in bracingly fresh air. Canada’s cold can seem interminable. But it is also irreplaceable.