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editorial

Goodbye, 2016. You were a leap year, and over your 366 days, the world developed a taste for leaps into the unknown. The improbable beat the odds, time and again.

Poll after poll said that Donald Trump had almost no chance of winning the U.S presidential election; he's now the president-elect. Poll after poll said Britons would narrowly vote to remain in the European Union; they voted narrowly for Brexit.

2016 was a very bad year to be a professional prognosticator.

So, what do the next 12 months have in store?

The Globe and Mail editorial board's crack team of oddsmakers is once again ready to make book on the likelihood of various events occurring in 2017.

Let's begin in OTTAWA.

Probability of a change in government: 0 per cent

Probability of the Trudeau government introducing legislation to reform political fundraising rules: 63 per cent

Probability of the government introducing legislation to hold a referendum on electoral reform: 23 per cent

Probability of major electoral reform: 23 per cent

Probability of minor cabinet changes: 78 per cent

Probability of a major cabinet shuffle: 17 per cent

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

Probability that Canadian special forces will still be in Iraq at the end of 2017: 75 per cent

Odds that the government will refer to their mission, which has often involved combat, as a "combat mission": 12 per cent

Probability of Canada sending a significant number of troops to serve in a "peace" mission in Africa: 88 per cent

Odds that the mission will look more like the Iraq or Afghanistan missions, and less like traditional peacekeeping: 100 per cent

THE WORLD

Probability that Bashar al-Assad will still be President of Syria at the end of the year: 79 per cent

Probability that the so-called Islamic State will control less territory at the end of the year than at the beginning: 73 per cent

Probability that Angela Merkel will be re-elected as German Chancellor: 72 per cent

Odds of National Front leader Marine Le Pen winning the French presidential election: 29 per cent

Probability that British Prime Minister Theresa May will begin the formal Brexit process by her self-imposed deadline of March: 38 per cent

By the end of the year: 68 per cent

Probability that President Donald Trump will call for the renegotiation of NAFTA: 82 per cent

That he will approve the Keystone XL pipeline: 93 per cent

Probability of increased tensions between Washington and Beijing: 90 per cent

Probability that the relationship between Mr. Trump and Vladimir Putin will be worse at the end of the year than at the beginning: 80 per cent

THE ECONOMY

Probability that the Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark interest rate in the first half of 2017: 6 per cent

In the second half of the year: 26 per cent

Odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the first half of the year: 64 per cent

In the second half of the year: 34 per cent

Probability that the Canadian dollar will finish the year higher versus the U.S. dollar: 19 per cent

Odds that the Canadian unemployment rate will finish the year higher than at the start: 49 per cent

Probability that the West Texas Intermediate oil price will end the year above US$50: 41 per cent

INVESTING

In 2015, the S&P/TSX Composite index was one of the world's worst-performing major stock indexes, but in 2016 it bounced back and was a top-performing major index.

Probability of the S&P/TSX composite index ending the year higher: 38 per cent

Of the S&P/TSX outperforming the S&P 500: 47 per cent

SPORTS

Odds of a Canadian team winning the NBA title: 7 per cent

Of a Canadian team winning the World Series: 14 per cent

Of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup: 28 per cent

Of a Canadian being the NHL's leading point-getter: 67 per cent

Probability of a Canadian being the top goal-scorer: 51 per cent

Probability of the NHL reaching a deal to send players to the Winter Olympics in February, 2018: 35 per cent

Probability of an eighth NHL team coming to Canada in 2017: Same as the odds of a change in government in Ottawa.

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