Palestinian partisan: Amid warnings of yet more war in the Middle East, the region needs more than policy tweaksBERNAT ARMANGUE/The Associated Press
Pundits warn that another Middle East war is on the horizon.
Recent calls to use all means necessary, including military intervention, to curb Iran's nuclear program represent just one candidate for such projections - and this at a time when great instability reigns on Iran's eastern and western flanks in Afghanistan and Iraq. Farther west, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to fuel regional tensions. With the initial euphoria about a new Middle East concord under President Barack Obama rapidly fading, there is the added danger that maintaining the status quo or rushing a false peace could push the region toward war. Aggravating matters are the brewing succession crisis in Egypt and mounting Israeli anxieties over Hezbollah's capabilities, intensified by an emerging Lebanese-Syrian rapprochement.
To this boiling pot, add a wanting human development index, water disputes, democratic and human-rights challenges, religious and sectarian divide (real or inflated) and armed separatist movements in Yemen and elsewhere. In the aggregate, one finds what is arguably the world's most volatile region - one where rivals vying for advantage, their differences exacerbated by tribalism and historical tensions, have inadvertently fostered an environment prone to perpetual conflict and exploitation.
What can be done to reverse this trend?
The late Middle East expert Fred Halliday once noted that "relations between Middle Eastern states, beneath the carapace of fraternity and equality, are governed by calculation of states, factional interests within states, balances of internal and external state calculations and, to a lesser degree, ideology."
If this is true, and it is, then the zero-sum and realpolitik competitive strategy of Middle Eastern states induced by the reality on the ground is where the problem lies.
To propel the region forward, a new regional formula is required - one based on collective interests capable of aligning the region toward a sustainably peaceful future. In an essay published in Global Brief magazine, we made the case for a supranational regional union, detailing the various advantages the region would enjoy from a wholesale strategic realignment.
In international relations, sometimes, when there is stasis or dangerous drift on the ground, revolutionary diplomacy may just move the geopolitical yardsticks in a progressive direction. As the region prepares for its next war, the time may just have come for such diplomacy to shift the dynamics underwriting this vicious circle.
A first practical step toward cohesion would be to establish an all-inclusive, binding regional security organization. A comprehensive security pact is critical in building trust, constructively changing the existing calculus of regional states and acting as "a common front," deterring would-be aggressors and in turn reducing the incidence of war. Behind the political slogans, co-operation on key strategic interests like common security is possible, even among apparent regional rivals.
An indigenous Middle East security organization would have almost immediate benefits for the Israel-Palestinian quandary by allaying the security fears of protagonists, allowing in turn the realization of a viable two-state solution.
The second pillar would be the creation, over time, of a proper economic union. Economic interdependence would consolidate inter-state relations and act as an incentive for peace.
These first two pillars would prepare the ground for a third critical phase to emerge - the establishment of a regional court of human rights and a multitude of supranational entities aimed at enhancing good and democratic governance, resource-sharing, cultural and scientific exchange programs and meeting other social needs.
Although existing quasi-regional frameworks, such as the League of Arab States or the Economic Co-operation Council, share some of the aims of the proposed union, they are restricted in mandates and membership and therefore unable to affect fundamental regional transformation. An all-inclusive union could.
It would take courageous men and women in positions of influence to shake conventional Middle Eastern wisdom and focus consciousness on the limitless possibilities that a union could offer the region and its people. It would equally require a masterstroke of diplomacy to enable all regional states to become legitimate and equal partners in this collective alignment.
A summit to discuss and move toward the creation of such a regional union, starting with a regional security framework, ought to be organized forthwith with the support of the United Nations and the international community.
Sam Sasan Shoamanesh is head of the Counsel Assistance Unit of the International Criminal Court, and the co-founder and associate editor of Global Brief magazine.
Hirad Abtahi is the first legal adviser of the presidency of the ICC. He served the Chambers of the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in the trial of Slobodan Milosevic.
The views expressed in this article are the authors' and do not necessarily reflect the views of the ICC or the UN.