Voters have their names checked in a polling station during Canada's federal election in Calgary, on April 28.Ahmed Zakot/Reuters
Alberta is set to return a platoon of Conservative candidates to Ottawa in Monday’s federal election, although a handful of city ridings hosted tight races, underlining the province’s rural-urban divide.
The Liberals, under Mark Carney, are projected to win enough seats to form government for the fourth consecutive time with the Conservatives expected to return to Opposition benches.
The Conservative Party won all but three of Alberta’s 37 ridings, according to the preliminary results Monday evening. The Liberals held Edmonton Centre and picked up Calgary Confederation, while the New Democratic Party won Edmonton Strathcona, which it has controlled since 2008.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith put the question of sovereignty on the ballot this spring when she declared that Canada would face an “unprecedented national unity crisis” if the next prime minister did not acquiesce to a list of her demands related to energy policy within six months. It was a shot at Mr. Carney and brought the fringe idea of Alberta separation to the forefront.
Tom Vernon, a senior consultant with Crestview Strategy, said Ms. Smith may have preferred a Conservative victory but another Liberal government allows the Premier to maintain her political enemy: Alberta conservatives thrive when fighting Ottawa.
“It’s good for fundraising, it’s good for rallying the base and it’s good for distracting from things that maybe aren’t going so well provincially,” Mr. Vernon said Monday evening.
A voter enters a polling station to cast a ballots in the federal election in Calgary on April 28.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
Elections Canada estimated voter turnout in Alberta exceeded 63 per cent. It counted 2,064,167 votes with 96 per cent of polls reporting. As of April 25, Elections Canada estimated 3,234,505 people were registered to vote in the province.
Ms. Smith, speaking to a right-leaning podcast in the United States ahead of the campaign, also said she believes Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre is aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
Her willingness to entertain a debate around Alberta leaving Confederation, combined with her portrait of Mr. Poilievre, may have prompted some voters in progressive pockets of the province to support the Liberals.
But anger toward the federal Liberals remained hot in Alberta, even after former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepped down earlier this year. Mr. Carney, a former central banker, ran alongside many of the same Liberal MPs who served with Mr. Trudeau.
While polls leading up to election day hinted at an unprecedented breakthrough for the Liberals in the province, in the end, just a couple of urban ridings produced competitive races Monday.
In Calgary Confederation, Liberal Corey Hogan was on track to beat Conservative Jeremy Nixon, according to the preliminary results. With 99 per cent of polls reporting, Mr. Hogan received support from 47.6 per cent of votes cast, compared to 46.8 per cent for Mr. Nixon, a former cabinet minister under the United Conservative Party.
Conservative Len Webber had represented the riding since it was first contested in 2015.
In Calgary Centre, Greg McLean, the incumbent Conservative candidate, collected 50.7 per cent of the votes from 98.96 per cent of reporting polls, according to the preliminary results. His Liberal challenger received support from about 45 per cent of voters who cast ballots in the election.
And in the new riding of Calgary McKnight, Conservative Dalwinder Gill bettered George Chahal, the Liberal candidate who won Calgary Skyview in the 2021 election. Mr. Gill captured 49.2 per cent of the vote, compared to Mr. Chahal’s 45.8 per cent, with 94.39 per cent of polls reporting.
This time, Calgary Skyview went to Conservative Amanpreet S. Gill, with 55 per cent of the vote after 77 per cent of the polls reporting.
Eleanor Olszewski won Edmonton Centre for the Liberals, with 44.2 per cent of the vote, compared to 38.1 per cent for her Conservative competitor. She will replace Randy Boissonnault, who squeaked out a win for the Liberals in 2021.
Heather McPherson easily beat her Conservative and Liberal challengers in Edmonton Strathcona, an NDP stronghold in western Canada.
In Edmonton Southeast, Conservative Jagsharan Singh Mahal beat Amarjeet Sohi, who was trying to make a federal comeback under the Liberals in a new riding. Mr. Sohi took a leave from his job as Edmonton’s mayor to run in the election campaign.
Voters favoured Conservative Kerry Diotte over NDP incumbent Blake Desjarlais in Edmonton Griesbach. It was a rematch of the 2021 election and Mr. Diotte was previously the two-time incumbent.
In the 2021 election, the Conservatives won 30 of Alberta’s 34 seats. The NDP won two ridings in Edmonton, while the Liberals secured a seat in Edmonton and another in Calgary that year.
An election worker sets up a sign in front of a polling station during Canada's federal election in Calgary, on April 28.Ahmed Zakot/Reuters
Alberta’s Premier had said she supported Mr. Poilievre, but she made no appearances with the Conservative leader, nor did she attend his massive rally near Edmonton earlier this month. Further, she was in Asia on a trade mission during the final week of the campaign.
Ms. Smith has said she will not lead a campaign for Alberta to split from the rest of Canada if the Liberals win a fourth term in government. However, she has mused about her fellow citizens pushing for a referendum on sovereignty.
The Angus Reid Institute said three in 10 Albertans would favour leaving Canada if the Liberals won the federal election. This mirrors how Albertans felt after the 2021 contest, when the Liberals won their second term, albeit as a minority government.
A vocal minority of UCP members are agitating for Alberta to seek independence or join the United States. Ms. Smith has not taken steps to drown out their voices.
Mr. Vernon, the consultant at Crestview, is curious to see whether Ms. Smith changes her strategy when dealing with the federal government, which will partly hinge on how Mr. Carney manages the relationship.“I think her calculations will be based on both what she feels is best for Alberta interests, but also her political interests,” he said. “She has a razor thin majority here, so she’ll need to keep everyone happy.”
With reports from Alanna Smith in Calgary
The Globe travelled from east to west across Canada, asking people what issues mattered to them in the 2025 federal election.
The Globe and Mail
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that the Liberals picked up the riding of Calgary Centre. They picked up Calgary Confederation. This version has been updated.