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This is a rebound year for the Skateway with thousands of people on the ice that spans eight kilometres. Skaters make their way down the ice on Jan. 11, in Ottawa.Dave Chan/The Globe and Mail

Shawn Kenny stood out Friday among hundreds of skaters on the largest natural skating rink in the world. He was walking in cleat-studded boots as others glided by in skates, and pulling a sled loaded with an auger drill and a ground-penetrating radar device.

Both are the tools of the Carleton University engineering professor’s professional interest in the Rideau Canal Skateway, from the dynamics of ice to climate and how it’s changing.

Five days a week during skating season, he has been using the drill to punch through the ice sheet of between 30 and 40 centimetres to check its thickness. The radar helps, too.

At times in December, when the ice can be soft, Prof. Kenny wears a drysuit, a precaution in case he falls through into the frigid water. Luckily, that’s never happened.

“It’s fun. I guess I get my exercise in as well, walking four to five kilometres a day,” he said in an interview, sitting down for a break as hundreds skated around him.

But the research is serious: Prof. Kenny is part of a continuing research program by faculty and students at Carleton to help the National Capital Commission (NCC), which manages the canal, figure out how to ensure there is ice on the Skateway given the prospect of climate change.

This is a rebound year for the Skateway. The canal has barely been open in the past two years. In 2023, mild temperatures foiled the creation of ice, and the canal did not open at all – a first since skating became an official option in 1971. Last year, skating was allowed for 10 days.

But 2025 is turning out to be a boom year, with thousands of people on the ice that spans eight kilometres. On Friday, it was packed with couples, families and solo skaters. Some Ottawa residents even commute on the ice to jobs downtown.

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Carleton University Professor Shawn Kenny is doing research as part of a program that began in 2022 and is set to continue through to 2026.Ian Bailey/The Globe and Mail

Prof. Kenny, along with three other Carleton engineering and environmental studies professors as well as students, are doing research as part of a program that began in 2022 and is set to continue through to 2026.

By studying the ice – how it forms and what tools might best be used to help accelerate and guarantee that process – the Carleton team is hoping to help the Rideau Canal stay open longer.

“It’s an important project to help support the NCC in its decision-making,” Prof. Kenny said.

Part of the work is analysis, studying temperatures and conditions along the Skateway. The Carleton team has tracked the varying temperatures of the water through the skating season, as well as the ice itself – calculating how it reacts to the ambient temperatures in the atmosphere. Among their tools are sensors planted into the ice.

They are also developing models to understand how the ice is growing during the season and how it responds to the loads from thousands of skaters, as well as the equipment to service the Skateway.

“We can use these models we know are reasonably consistent with what we see today to try to estimate what’s going to happen in the future, in terms of how the ice will grow,” he said.

There are no precise models to confirm how a changing climate will affect the Skateway, Prof. Kenny said. “But the trend is clear, that we will have fewer days of winter. We’ll have fewer days of cold temperatures.”

At that point, it becomes uncertain whether a Skateway is viable, he said.

The research, budgeted at about $400,000, has seen the development of an experimental “Snobot” robot, weighing about 40 kilograms, to help remove snow from the ice. Snow acts as an insulator, limiting ice growth, Prof. Kenny said.

They are considering options to create better ice early in the season, including pumping slush onto the ice, installing heat pumps in the water, and better managing snow, which can interfere with the freezing of ice.

At this point, all of these options are very much at a conceptual stage.

“We’ve looked at what kind of technologies are low-hanging fruit,” said Prof. Kenny, referring to those used by varied industries that might be adapted to the needs of the Skateway.

This year is seeing the best turnouts on the Skateway in three years. One of the skaters has been Catherine McKenna, the former federal environment minister and Ottawa MP.

On the first day of skating this year, she was out on the ice. “I’m not a very good skater, but I just love it,” she said.

She said she worries that there eventually won’t be a Skateway because of climate change. “So I am going to take advantage of it now.”

Between the Jan. 11 opening of the Skateway and Jan. 19, there were a total 258,000 users, according to Bruce Devine, a senior manager of facilities and programs for the NCC.

“The weather is co-operating beautifully. The cold weather is providing an excellent gliding, skating surface,” he said.

Mr. Devine, who has been a regular on the Skateway for 13 years, said he is hoping for 35 days of skating this year.

The NCC helps that process along. Every night, water is spread on the ice and allowed to freeze in temperatures of up to -20 degrees. As it freezes, the process creates smooth ice.

He says the NCC’s research association with Carleton is a first in the skating history of the canal, and that it is providing the commission with a better sense of the dynamics of ice.

That includes an understanding of how there are different temperatures for water in various areas of the canal. For example, the water near the National Arts Centre, not far from Parliament Hill, is warmer than elsewhere.

Asked how this year is different from last year, Mr. Devine is blunt. “My God, there’s no comparison.

“Last year, we were having the weather going in a yo-yo, up and down. For the most part, we had soft ice.”

This year, he said, is “a more normal skating experience.”

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