Pedestrians pass by a police car parked outside Shaarei Shomayim synagogue in Toronto, on March 8. The synagogue was struck with gunfire this month.Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press
A violent extremist attack against Canada’s Jewish community is a “realistic possibility” in the next six months, the federal Integrated Threat Assessment Centre warns in a report obtained by The Globe and Mail.
ITAC, which is a specialized organization in the Canadian intelligence community, also said it is unlikely that “Iranian lethal operations” in Canada would target Jewish public officials, such as MPs and cabinet ministers who support Israel. ITAC shared the report with the federal government and often shares such information with people or organizations that could be affected.
Amid the war in Iran and the fallout from the Israel-Gaza conflict, ITAC assessed that the Canadian Jewish community – including schools, community centres and synagogues – is in danger. Any attack would most likely come from a lone-wolf extremist, using knives, small arms or a vehicle, the report said.
“While a violent extremist attack targeting the Jewish community in Canada is a realistic possibility in the next six months, a violent extremist threat to Jewish public officials – as a specific group within that community – remains unlikely,” ITAC said in the internal threat assessment.
“The most likely scenario of an attack targeting the Jewish community is a lone actor using unsophisticated methods against easily accessible targets.”
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The report, dated Wednesday, did not say that there was a specific threat the organization was aware of, or in what city an attack could take place.
ITAC was created in 2004 after the lead of allies, such as the United States, Britain and Australia, which had created agencies to manage assessments of threats to their countries. ITAC is an independent body staffed from members of Canada’s various intelligence networks as well as the RCMP, National Defence and the Canada Border Services Agency.
Noah Shack, chief executive officer of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, told The Globe on Thursday that the country should be alarmed by the warning of a potential terrorist attack within six months.
“Not only have we not seen that kind of definitive language before but attaching a time frame to it elevates the seriousness of the warning,” he said.
Mr. Shack said it’s a relief to know that Canadian security agencies are now on full alert to safeguard Canadian Jews.
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However, he expressed concern that police have not charged anti-Jewish protesters at rallies in Toronto, where antisemitic posters have been displayed and demonstrators have called for the elimination of Israel.
“Those images were taken right out of Nazi propaganda and are deeply disturbing, and they were paraded around a predominately Jewish neighbourhood,” he said. “It is absolutely imperative that our laws be enforced.”
Mr. Shack applauded the federal government for announcing $10-million to enhance security at Jewish schools, community centers and synagogues, after shots were fired at two Greater Toronto Area synagogues earlier this month.
In its assessment, ITAC appeared to tie the two March 6 shootings to the March 10 early-morning shooting at the U.S. consulate in Toronto. All three shootings damaged the exteriors of the buildings but caused no injuries.
This connection suggests that the shootings are being investigated as a potential national-security matter, Mr. Shack said.
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“If one of those bullets had found its way into a human, we would be treating this as a terrorist attack,” he said, adding that the Anthony Albanese government has announced 100-million Australian dollars over three years to protect the Jewish community in that country.
“We shouldn’t wait for a Bondi Beach-type massacre to look at the overall funding and support and infrastructure to keep Canadians safe,” he said.
Although ITAC said it did not believe Jewish public officials in Canada are in imminent danger from Iranian sleeper cells or proxies, it noted that “this assessment may change as the conflict continues.”
“Should a violent extremist attack occur, public officials attending Jewish or pro-Israel events are more likely to be collaterally affected by an attack on the event itself than to be deliberately targeted,” ITAC said.
The Jewish community, ITAC said, is more likely to face criminal harassment and intimidation, which has happened repeatedly since the Oct 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed more than 1,200 people in Israel. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded with fierce bombardment and military intrusion into Gaza.
More than 70,000 Palestinians have been killed and tens of thousands left homeless. It has led to worldwide protests against Israel, with a rise in antisemitism, including in Canada.
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ITAC said the longer the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran continues, the more likelihood that the Canadian Jewish community will experience “violent rhetoric, hate crime and criminal intimidation.”
Before the war, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service said in February that “Iranian threat-related activities directed at Canada and its allies are likely to continue in 2026, and may increase depending on developments in the Middle East and the Iranian regime’s own threat perceptions.”
Iran has long been on the radar of CSIS, which said in a report last year that the agency “continues to investigate threats to life emanating from the Islamic Republic of Iran based on credible intelligence.”
Former Liberal justice minister Irwin Cotler has been under RCMP protection since the Oct. 7 mass killings in Israel. CSIS told him that he was a high-profile target of Iran, a long-time sponsor of Hamas.
Mr. Cotler has been on Iran’s radar for his global campaign since 2008 to list the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist entity. He has also represented Iranian political prisoners as a lawyer and is a strong supporter of Israel.
In June, 2024, under pressure from opposition parties, Canada joined the U.S. in declaring the IRGC a banned terrorist group.
Ottawa severed diplomatic ties with Iran more than a decade ago.