As the U.S. turns on its allies, Canadians look toward joining Europe

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The idea keeps coming back. A French politician mused about it in Berlin last month. A Finnish leader visiting Ottawa this April didn’t dismiss it out of hand.

Fresh polls show a majority of Canadians would support it.

And in an era when the United States has turned on its closest allies, the question has acquired a new urgency: Could Canada join the European Union?

The answer, in short, is not any time soon. The changes required of Canada would be huge and possibly insurmountable, including withdrawing from the United States Mexico Canada Agreement – the trilateral pact that oversees the vast bulk of this country’s external trade.

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Still, joining the EU is attractive for many Canadians as the country rethinks its place in the world. The 27-country economic bloc offers a stable market of 450 million people living in what, for the most part, are liberal democracies under a rules-based order that values human rights, collective welfare and sustainability.

Some feel there could be benefit to applying anyway: as a way of hedging Canada’s bets if the United States continues its deterioration from a liberal democracy into some form of authoritarianism.

“The obstacles are too great as long as we have a good relationship with the United States,” Frédéric Mérand, a professor and chair of the department of political science at Université de Montréal, said. “But it starts to become less daunting if our relationship with the U.S. really sours, or if the U.S. becomes an authoritarian regime.”

Prof. Mérand thinks Canada should apply to keep its options open and give momentum to efforts to more closely integrate with the EU.

Decisions on accepting new members are by consensus, so even one EU member could block Canada’s accession, said Amy Verdun, a University of Victoria political scientist considered one of Canada’s foremost scholars on the European Union.

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Not all of the EU has even ratified the free trade agreement that the economic bloc signed with Canada in 2016. Nearly a decade later there are still 10 holdout countries including France, Italy, Poland, Ireland and Greece, according to Carleton University’s ratification tracker.

Even Canada’s geography would raise questions. Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union states that any “European state” may apply for membership. While Cyprus, a country geographically located in West Asia, joined the EU in 2004 after Greece argued for its inclusion on cultural and historical grounds, Canada would face far greater skepticism.

“The first thing legal purists would say is that Canada is not a European country because it is not located in Europe,” Prof. Verdun said. Others, she added, might counter that Canada shares European values, institutions and historical ties.

If Canada could clear that hurdle, the scale of legal transformation required would still be enormous. The country would have to bring its laws and regulations into alignment with the so-called acquis communautaire, which is the entire accumulated body of EU treaties, legislation, regulations, court rulings and legal obligations that all member states must apply. “The EU is not going to say, ‘Canada is special, let’s make thousands of exceptions,’ ” Prof. Verdun said. “The expectation is that you adopt the acquis as a whole.”

While some member states have negotiated limited opt‑outs (such as from adopting the single currency, participating in the Schengen passport‑free travel zone, or aspects of EU social policy), those exemptions are specific, politically sensitive and difficult to obtain. New members are sometimes granted transition periods to phase in parts of EU law over time, but permanent derogations are rare.

The acquis spans tens of thousands of pages and governs nearly all areas of economic and social regulation. It would affect everything from minimum‑wage rules to technical standards for vehicle headlights and emissions, areas where EU regulations operate under a different framework than Canada’s and are, in some cases, more demanding. Much of what the acquis covers – including agriculture, labour rules, environmental regulation and professional licensing – falls partly or wholly under provincial jurisdiction in Canada, meaning EU membership would effectively apply European rules in areas normally controlled by the provinces.

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Canada’s supply‑management system for dairy, poultry and eggs would also be incompatible with the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy, which supports a much larger number of smaller‑scale farms through different mechanisms. Canada would either need a negotiated transition or eventually phase in EU agricultural rules, a process that could take 10 to 20 years, Prof. Verdun said.

Even if Canada was amenable to the massive transformation required to be part of the European Union, the “enlargement” process – the term for a new country to join the bloc – could take a decade, she said.

Prof. Verdun said Canada would benefit from deepening the benefits of its existing trade deal with the EU, including expanding mobility rights for different professions to work in each other’s jurisdictions. Ottawa should also convince the 10 EU holdout countries to ratify the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement, she said. The deal’s investment protection rules – including the investment tribunal system – cannot enter into force until all member states ratify.

Applying for EU membership right now carries risk as well. Filing an application – however long it might take – could anger the mercurial U.S. President Donald Trump, who might lash out at Canada in response. “Would he punish us? Would there be strategic consequences? Quite possibly,” Prof. Mérand said.

Fen Osler Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University, calls support for EU membership among Canadians “wishful thinking” driven by anxiety over how Mr. Trump’s tariffs and taunting of Canada has disrupted life in this country.

“It says more about a sense of desperation in public opinion – that we’ve got to have some other options.”

He said the benefits do not outweigh the renovation of Canadian society required. “We’re talking about a wholesale redoing of the Canadian economy, of Canadian confederation, of the powers of the provinces and the federal government. It would probably require constitutional change.”

Joining the EU would immediately erect trade barriers with the United States, he predicted. More than 70 per cent of Canada’s exports go to the United States versus the 8 to 10 per cent that are shipped to Europe.

Canada would have to withdraw from USCMA and operate under European Union rules of trade with the U.S. The EU does not have a comprehensive trade agreement with the United States.

Canadian exports to Europe skew heavily to resources and commodities, Prof. Hampson said. It can sell more high-value goods such as natural resources and energy if it can find a way to build pipelines and ports for EU export.

“We don’t need to join the European Union to sell that stuff to them. We just need to get our own act together.”