Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump at the Kennedy Center in Washington.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Canadians currently view the United States as more of a risk than a partner, according to a new poll that finds three-quarters dispute the idea that our southern neighbour is a trustworthy ally.
A survey by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail took stock of deteriorating Canadian opinions of the United States after U.S. President Donald Trump’s first year back in office.
The findings suggest a profound level of distrust and a significant recasting of how Canadians see the United States.
The survey asked Canadians if they agree with the statement that “the United States is a trustworthy ally of Canada.” Nearly half – 49.2 per cent – disagreed and another 26.9 per cent said they somewhat disagreed. Only 9.2 per cent agreed with the statement; 12.5 per cent somewhat agreed.
“These are probably the worst numbers in any era where polling was done,” pollster Nik Nanos said of the survey tracking Canadian attitudes to the United States.
The results detail a backlash against the mercurial and protectionist U.S. President, who regularly belittles Canada as “the 51st state,” and illuminate the underlying thinking that has affected Canadian travel plans, purchasing behaviour and eroded misgivings about trading with the authoritarian state of China.
The poll found that one in five Canadians believes an invasion of Canada ordered by Mr. Trump is likely while only half of respondents dismiss the possibility outright.
Since taking office in early 2025, the U.S. President imposed a slew of tariffs on Canada, and while products traded under United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement rules are exempt, that hasn’t shielded steel, aluminum and autos from damaging levies. Mr. Trump, who last year declined to rule out using economic coercion to acquire Canada, has repeatedly painted the country as a dependent freeloading off the United States.
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More than two in three Canadians polled rated themselves as concerned that Canada’s security is threatened by the U.S. and Mr. Trump.
Asked to score themselves on a scale of zero to 10, where zero is not at all concerned and 10 is very concerned, 67 per cent of respondents rated themselves as concerned – picking numbers 7 through 10 – while 14.5 per cent rated themselves as neutral and more than 18 per cent reported themselves as generally not concerned.
“The environment now in Canada is very emotionally charged,” Mr. Nanos said.
“This is a far cry from the 1980s and Ronald Reagan and Brian Mulroney, which kind of heralded an era of Canadian and American co-operation,” the pollster said, referring to the close relationship between leaders at the time.
The Nanos survey of Canadian adults, conducted Jan. 31 to Feb. 4, found that more than 75 per cent reported boycotting U.S. products or services in the past year; more than 51 per cent said they have cancelled travel plans to the United States over the same period.
The Nanos poll found Canadians leaning toward deeper trading ties with China, a significant shift from three years ago.
Forty-four per cent of Canadians surveyed now support increasing trade with China – a major rival of the United States – while only 10 per cent favour scaling it back. Back in November, 2022, when Nanos Research polled on the same question, it found that only 5 per cent backed expanding trade with China while 61 per cent supported decreasing trade.
Mr. Nanos said long-term polling he’s conducted shows Canadians recognize that because of geography, the United States will always be this country’s most important trading partner. They have to reconcile that with the fact Canada is tethered to a superpower that is less reliable than it has been in the past, he said. “If geography is destiny, we’re hostage.”
The poll of 1,009 people is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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Mr. Nanos said it remains to be seen whether negative opinions toward the United States mark a fundamental shift in Canadian thinking.
“Considering how stable, cordial and generally positive the national relationship has been for the past 100 years, we are entering into new territory,” he said. “It is too early to tell whether this is a rupture or a recalibration between neighbors.”
Roland Paris, a professor of international affairs and director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, said Canadian attitudes toward the United States can fluctuate depending on the president.
“But these results are so dramatic, it’s hard not to think that some fundamental trust has been broken and that we’re not going to just see attitudes flip back positive simply with a change of president,” he said.
The survey asked respondents how likely they believe it is that Mr. Trump might order an invasion of Canada during his current term in office. They were asked to rate the likelihood on a scale from zero to 10 where 10 is very likely. More than 21 per cent picked numbers 7 through 10. Almost 50 picked numbers zero to 3, which is not likely. More than 26 per cent selected numbers 4 through 6, which Nanos describes as a neutral position.
Despite strained ties, Canada and the United States are united by joint-defence pacts including the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD) agreement to protect the continent as well as the North Atlantic Treaty underpinning NATO that states that an armed attack against one ally “shall be considered an attack against them all.”