A sizable portion of ICE’s US$85-billion budget has gone to equipping the agency with sophisticated surveillance gear and includes contracts with mercenary spyware vendors, cellphone forensic companies and data-fusion and analysis platforms.Ryan Murphy/The Associated Press
Canada and the rest of the democratic world are facing a “tsunami” of transnational and digital repression with the rise of authoritarianism in the U.S., the arrival of artificial intelligence and a softening of attitudes on human rights, according to a respected Canadian cyber-research group.
The director of the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy issued the chilly warning in a presentation to be delivered Monday to a House of Commons committee studying transnational repression.
Ronald Deibert, professor of political science and founder of the Citizen Lab, which focuses on digital security, provided The Globe and Mail with a copy of his remarks. He predicted that transnational repression (TNR) and digital transnational repression (DTR) “will expand dramatically in the coming months and years.”
TNR is defined as coming from hostile states targeting political exiles, regime critics and diaspora communities abroad while DTR is the use of cybertechnologies by these countries for harassment, influence operations and geolocation tracking.
Mr. Deibert cites what he refers to as the sudden descent into authoritarianism in the U.S., the rapid use of AI, and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s adoption of a “realist-inspired” foreign policy as three reasons for Canadians to be concerned.
Opinion: Trump offers Iran militarism, authoritarianism and corruption instead of a coherent plan
He said the Prime Minister appears to be soft-pedalling human rights as he focuses on boosting economic and trade ties to countries such as China and India.
A public inquiry into foreign interference in addition to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service have identified China and India as major perpetrators of foreign interference in Canada, using both transnational and digital repression tactics.
A federal government official, however, said recently in a background briefing for media ahead of Mr. Carney’s recent trip to India that the country is no longer involved in illegal acts in Canada, although Ottawa has not publicly embraced that characterization. The Globe is not identifying the official because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the issue.
Mr. Deibert said it’s worrisome that Mr. Carney agreed during a January visit to Beijing to improve police co-operation between the two countries.
Strengthening police co-operation with the autocratic regime should be “highly concerning in light of the fact that China’s own law enforcement is a major perpetrator of TNR and DTR in Canada,” he said.
Opinion: In the age of AI, the fog of war thickens
Mr. Deibert said it was also troubling that Ottawa stayed silent after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on International Criminal Court jurist and Canadian citizen Kimberly Prost.
The U.S. faulted Ms. Prost for being part of a 2020 ruling authorizing an investigation into war crimes committed in Afghanistan by the Taliban, Afghan forces and members of the U.S. military and Central Intelligence Agency, which operated secret detention facilities.
“The public silence invites similar assaults on international organizations that Canada has built and ultimately depends on for our own national security,” Mr. Deibert said.
His harshest criticism was levelled at the U.S. for tactics directed toward undocumented immigrants and refugees by agents of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency, known as ICE.
Many of the newly hired ICE agents have been poorly vetted and trained and reportedly include far-right insurrectionists and white nationalists.
“They roam the streets without identification, outfitted in battlefield fatigues, heavily armed, and routinely kidnap people or break into their homes without warrants or probable cause,” he said.
Gary Mason: America had lots of warning about this moment
A sizable portion of ICE’s US$85-billion budget has gone to equipping the agency with sophisticated surveillance gear and includes contracts with mercenary spyware vendors, cellphone forensic companies and data-fusion and analysis platforms.
ICE could be “used to monitor and neutralize political dissent” and lead the U.S. surveillance sector to market their gear to authoritarian governments abroad, Mr. Deibert warns.
“The momentous shift of the world’s most powerful country will have major direct and indirect consequences for TNR and DTR,” he said. “It will normalize state repression and thus embolden dictators all over the world who now have a model for crackdowns on political opposition.”
Over the past few years, Mr. Deibert said AI has been increasingly deployed for cyberespionage, disinformation campaigns and influence operations.
He criticized Ottawa’s AI and Innovation Minister, Evan Solomon, for expressing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence while failing to “properly acknowledge and deal with AI-associated harms.”
He pointed out that Canada signed an AI collaboration agreement with the United Arab Emirates, which he noted is “one of the world’s worst human-rights-abusing autocratic regimes with a long track record of supporting unethical surveillance ventures and engaging in DTR.”
“In light of all the above, it is my belief that there will be a tsunami of new TNR and DTR-related incidents in Canada,” he concluded.
He urged Ottawa to strengthen efforts to combat transnational and digital repression, better regulate the spyware industry and impose tougher regulations on AI companies.
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to correct a quote from Ronald Deibert, professor of political science and founder of the Citizen Lab. He predicted the United States' use of ICE will be seen globally "as a model for crackdowns on political opposition."