Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds a news conference in Ottawa on Dec. 1.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s political focus is being tested by the uncertainty that Donald Trump injects into Canadian and international politics.
After two years of Mr. Poilievre pushing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over housing and other affordability issues – and with the Conservatives well ahead in the polls – the U.S. president-elect is changing the stakes, said Ginny Roth, who ran Mr. Poilievre’s communications during his 2022 leadership bid and is a partner at Crestview Strategy.
“I don’t think Trump is a variable that you can wrest control of,” she said.
That leaves Mr. Poilievre facing a new political reality: He’s no longer in control of the narrative.
The polls have created an unrealistic expectation for Mr. Poilievre to act as though he is in charge, said Regan Watts, who worked as an adviser to former Conservative foreign affairs minister Lawrence Cannon.
“Just because he’s leading in the polls doesn’t make him the prime minister,” Mr. Watts said. “It doesn’t give him all of the obligations of being the prime minister.”
The responsibility of managing the Canada-U.S. relationship belongs to the current elected government, Mr. Watts said, not Mr. Poilievre, even as Mr. Trudeau and other political and business leaders urge a Team Canada approach to the issue.
Nonetheless, the past two weeks have showcased Mr. Poilievre trying to figure out the new Trump dynamic and what it means for his political future.
Mr. Poilievre and his MPs rarely comment in the national media on issues beyond their core agenda, but when Mr. Trump dropped his 25-per-cent tariff threat, which would be devastating to the Canadian economy, it couldn’t be ignored.
So he held the first of a series of news conferences with the parliamentary press corps, all responding to the reverberations from Mr. Trump’s threat as it continued to dominated the news cycle.
Not responding to Mr. Trump wasn’t an option, and Mr. Poilievre likely also saw it as an important opportunity to frame the coming debate on Canada-U.S. relations his way, Ms. Roth said.
“He never wants to take for granted [that] the public will blame Trudeau for what [Poilievre] thinks he should be blamed for,” she said.
Mr. Poilievre has said that he believes the tariffs would be unjustified. But, he also blames Mr. Trudeau for loose border and immigration controls. Mr. Trudeau has in turn suggested that amplifies American misinformation.
The run of engagements with the national media were heavily scrutinized. Some political pundits assessed Mr. Poilievre as appearing unsettled. But Mr. Watts said what he saw over the course of two weeks was a Conservative Leader figuring out when to use a baseball bat to smash at the government and when to use a scalpel for a more precise response – a sign of maturity, Mr. Watts said, and a readiness to lead.
Abacus Data chief executive officer David Coletto said few Canadians thus far name Canada-U.S. relations as a top priority. That, plus Mr. Poilievre’s commanding lead in the polls, mean his response to Mr. Trump, at least for now, likely won’t shift public opinion.
A policy on Canada-U.S. relations if Mr. Poilievre becomes prime minister is in the works as he consults with people who have deep ties in U.S. politics.
This past week, a coterie of Canadian Conservatives attended the International Democracy Union convention in Washington. The IDU, an alliance of centre-right political parties, is currently led by former prime minister Stephen Harper, who presided over a conference full of Republicans – including Mr. Trump’s current choice for national-security adviser – for three days. Mr. Poilievre was a minister in the Harper government.
Then, there is Conservative MP Jamil Jivani who is close friends with vice-president-elect JD Vance, going for lunch with him in Washington on Nov. 13. On Friday, Mr. Vance used social media to amplify Mr. Jivani’s thoughts on what the MP has called the persecution of Christians in Canada.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland didn’t answer when asked this week whether she’s tried to speak to Mr. Jivani for any insight on how the government should approach the U.S. administration, despite Ottawa’s calls for a Team Canada approach to managing Mr. Trump,
During a meeting with opposition leaders on Canada-U.S. affairs this week, Mr. Trudeau also did not explicitly ask Mr. Poilievre, or any other party chiefs, whether they had any personal contacts in the U.S. that they’d be willing to call upon to press Canada’s case.
Upon leaving the meeting, Mr. Poilievre did say he’d be willing to carry the message of the damage tariffs could do to both countries to anyone with influence in the U.S., though he didn’t answer the question of how he’d do that or with whom.
While Mr. Trump’s volatility is a challenge, Mr. Poilievre has long been a student of the populist currents that swept Mr. Trump into office, making it perhaps easier for the Conservative Leader to anticipate what might be coming, Ms. Roth said.
“He has more empathy for the Trump voting coalition and more ability to understand Donald Trump than most,” she said.
On the other hand, there could be risks for Mr. Poilievre if he is seen as too close to Mr. Trump – or of having the tacit endorsement of his administration, Mr. Coletto said. Mr. Poilievre has knit together a coalition of voters who aren’t in alignment on Mr. Trump.
“A sizable portion of his base likes Trump but a sizable portion of his base doesn’t,” Mr. Coletto said.
For now, Mr. Poilievre may be on the cusp of regaining control of the narrative. This coming week on Parliament Hill, his party is in charge of the agenda for two days, and on both he intends to call for the defeat of the Liberal government.