Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a campaign rally in Quebec City, on March 26.Mathieu Belanger/Reuters
Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s campaign manager says Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will lose the federal election unless he quickly pivots and responds to Canadians’ fear and anxiety over U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic war against Canada.
Kory Teneycke, who oversaw Mr. Ford’s three back-to-back majority government wins, bluntly told an Empire Club of Canada discussion about the election Wednesday evening that alarm bells should be ringing loudly in the Poilievre campaign.
Three recent polls show that the Mark Carney-led Liberals have overtaken the Conservatives. The Poilievre party had led by double-digit numbers for more than a year until Justin Trudeau’s sudden exit, the return of Mr. Trump to the White House and the naming of the former central banker as Liberal leader.
In Ontario’s February election, Mr. Ford was laser-focused on Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, seeking a mandate to stand up to the U.S. President.
“You got to get on that issue,” Mr. Teneycke said. “And you know, you might not totally win, but you can’t lose by 20 points on it. You can’t get blown away on it.”
He later added: “If they don’t get on it, and get on it quick, they are going to get obliterated.”
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Vote-rich Ontario is the main battleground province because it almost always decides who will form the government. According to internal Progressive Conservative polling shared with The Globe by Mr. Teneycke, the federal Liberals hold a significant lead in Ontario, with 48 per cent compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives and 11 per cent for the New Democrats.
Mr. Teneycke said Mr. Trump’s imposition of 25-per-cent tariffs on the global auto industry next Wednesday will hit Ontario particularly hard, and noted retaliatory U.S. tariffs are heading Canada’s way the same day.
Mr. Teneycke said tariffs have to become Mr. Poilievre’s ballot box issue.
“These are tsunami waves that are crashing down trees and buildings and everything in their path right now,” said Mr. Teneycke, a former adviser to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper.
He also said Mr. Poilievre has “basic unlikability” and shares too many commonalities with the U.S. President, including his campaign slogan “Canada First” which emulates Mr. Trump “America First.”
“He looks too much like Trump. He sounds too much like Trump. He uses the lexicon of Trump,” Mr. Teneycke said.
When asked at a campaign stop in Coquitlam, B.C., about Mr. Teneycke’s comments likening the Conservative Leader to Mr. Trump, Mr. Poilievre said, “I’m the only one who will stand up to the U.S. President.”
He said that Mr. Trump wants the Liberals back in power “so that he can keep abusing our economy and taking advantage of Canada” and that a Conservative government will stand up to America from a position of strength.
Asked about the falling poll numbers for the Conservatives, Mr. Poilievre said they will wait for Canadians to make the choice on election day about whether the Liberals deserve a fourth term in the face of rising costs, crime and a weakened economy.
Mr. Poilievre has largely kept to attacking the former Trudeau government and unveiling policies from large to boutique tax measures while vowing to stand up to Mr. Trump with reciprocal tariffs.
But he’s also gone after the World Economic Forum where global elites, including Mr. Carney, discuss economic and environmental challenges. He’s delighted Conservative faithful by promising to defund the CBC and criticized the Century Initiative, a pro-immigration lobby group. The group was co-founded by Mark Wiseman, whom Mr. Carney named to his U.S. trade advisory council. It has advocated for raising Canada’s population to 100 million.
“As a campaign manager, your job is to try to frame the ballot question like, that’s really the name of the game,” Mr. Teneycke told the audience. “It’s not going to happen if you’re talking about the World Economic Forum and the Century Initiative.”
Since he became Conservative Leader in 2022, Mr. Poilievre had not reached out to Mr. Ford until Feb. 27 when they spoke by phone. Both men said the call did not involve a request for help with Mr. Poilievre’s election campaign.
The Progressive Conservative Premier has made it clear that he will not endorse any of the federal parties during the election.
Mr. Ford has spoken glowingly about the new Prime Minister, as well as former Liberal leadership candidate Chrystia Freeland, who had coffee with Mr. Ford and attended the Premier’s swearing-in ceremony in Toronto last week.