Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives with his Minister of International Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs and President of the King’s Privy Council for Canada Dominic LeBlanc, and Minister of Transport and Internal Trade Chrystia Freeland to take part in the First Minister Meeting at the National War Museum in Ottawa on March 21.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
The political parties have their planes and buses ready, star candidates picked and war rooms up and running for what could be the most monumental election in Canada’s history. Economic uncertainty triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade war and rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state are top of mind for voters.
The election call will kick off a day before Parliament was scheduled to resume sitting, when the Mark Carney-led minority government would have faced near certain defeat. Election planning by all political parties has been well under way since Justin Trudeau announced his exit from politics on Jan. 6.
Mr. Carney will visit Rideau Hall Sunday to ask Governor-General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament and call the election for an expected vote on April 28.
Mark Carney to run in Ottawa-area riding of Nepean
“It has been a long time since Canada’s very existence has been as threatened as it is now,” said Carleton University historian Stephen Azzi.
“I can’t think of any time since Confederation where a U.S. president has been this blatant about wanting to annex Canada. So, this is without precedent.”
Like the historic 1988 free-trade election in which Canadians embraced the United States, this one will be fought over economic stewardship and whether Mr. Carney or Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre can best defend the country and build an economy that is less dependent on its biggest and now-hostile trading partner.
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The ballot-box question is different than even eight weeks ago when it centred on the deeply unpopular Mr. Trudeau, the rising cost of living and the consumer carbon levy.
The return of Mr. Trump to the White House and the Liberal Party’s election of a former central banker as leader have seemingly turned the tables on the Conservatives, who once appeared headed for a massive majority government.
Most polls show the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat while the New Democrats, led by Jagmeet Singh, are a distant third. The Bloc Québécois have dropped more than 10 percentage points in Quebec since Mr. Carney became Liberal Leader, barely a week ago.
“Trump is the lightning rod that rolls up many of the anxieties that Canadians have about our economic future,” said pollster Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research. “Our economy is under mortal threat from Trump.”
The 60-year-old Mr. Carney is the first Prime Minister to have never held elective office, and he’s touting his experience as a central banker for both Canada and England. He navigated two major economic crises: the 2008 financial crash and Brexit. His leadership at Canada’s central bank is widely praised for helping avoid the worst of the global recession, although former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper has said that the credit should largely go to the late Jim Flaherty, finance minister at the time.
Mr. Carney’s time at the Bank of England gave him experience in dealing with Mr. Trump during the President’s first term at G20 leaders’ summits. He hasn’t had a phone call yet with Mr. Trump but he’s made it clear that he’s not interested in a face-to-face meeting until the President stops talking about annexation.
He’s also backed off his leadership-campaign pledge to match Trump tariffs with dollar-for-dollar retaliation. Because Canada is a much smaller market than the U.S., Mr. Carney says Canadian tariffs must do maximum harm to the U.S. and have minimum impact on Canada.
The Liberals have made Mr. Trump the centrepiece of their early attacks ads, presenting Mr. Poilievre as a populist mini-Trump while extolling Mr. Carney’s economic credentials. Mr. Carney has derided his 45-year old Conservative opponent for spending half his life as an MP and never working in the private sector.
The Conservative Leader abandoned his year-long talk of Canada is broken to a Canada First slogan, and is threatening to respond in equal measure to Trump tariffs. So far, however, Mr. Poilievre has stuck largely to talk of eliminating the consumer and industrial carbon levy and bemoaning a decade of Trudeau-era rule even as voters are preoccupied with Trump tariffs and annexation threats.
His campaign continues to name-call, referring to his Liberal rival as Carbon Tax Carney or Sneaky Carney.
“Pierre Poilievre has to pivot because up until a week ago he has been using last year’s message on the Liberals being a tired government that has messed up the country, that has an unpopular carbon tax as his key focus. He has been a bit flatfooted, which is why the race has tightened,” Mr. Nanos said.
Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks after signing a document during a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill on March 14.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Kory Teneycke, who racked up three majority government wins as campaign manager for Ontario Premier Doug Ford, is puzzled why Mr. Poilievre and campaign manager Jenni Byrne have not shifted gears. In last month’s Ontario election, Mr. Ford was laser-focused on fighting Mr. Trump.
“You have to campaign on the big issues that voters care about, which is Trump. And you can’t look and sound like Trump while doing it,” said Mr. Teneycke, a former adviser to Mr. Harper when the latter was Conservative prime minister. “They are on a dozen different issues right now. And Pierre needs to stop being angry.”
This week, Mr. Poilievre got a break when Mr. Trump told Fox News that he preferred a Liberal win over the Conservatives. Mr. Poilievre was quick to say this showed Mr. Trump viewed the Liberals as weak and easy pushovers.
But the ever-fickle Mr. Trump could just as easily change course and endorse Mr. Poilievre, as billionaire Elon Musk has done on X on several occasions.
“This is a man acting on whims, acting on a desire to destabilize Canada with the goal to gain some advantage and acting on some deep-seated need to humiliate other people,” Prof. Azzi said of Mr. Trump. “So it is hard to know how to react to him and who might have an advantage in that regard.”
Mr. Poilievre has gone after Mr. Carney on character issues too. He’s criticized his rival for not being transparent on the value of his financial holdings and on the headquarters move from Toronto to New York of Brookfield Asset Management, which he chaired until he resigned to run for the Liberal leadership.
Mr. Carney has faced opposition and news-media questions about when he would publicly disclose the assets he’s put in a blind trust upon becoming Prime Minister. Conflict-of-interest rules do not require public disclosure until well after the election.
“For Carney, the risk is that this becomes a nagging annoyance that dogs him throughout the campaign so at some point Canadians go, ‘What is up with this? Just tell us what you have in the blind trust,’ ” Mr. Nanos said.
Mr. Poilievre has a potentially powerful message that could resonate with voters. The nine-plus-year Trudeau legacy of progressive policies, high deficits, the housing crisis and a weakening economy will not be easy to run away from for Mr. Carney. As well, the Prime Minister is untested and will need to perform strongly in the English and French TV debates against seasoned politicians like Mr. Poilievre and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet.
“It’s an open race and things could change quickly,” pollster Jean-Marc Léger said.
On policy, Mr. Carney has tried to neutralize the Conservative attacks on consumer carbon pricing by reducing the levy to zero, while maintaining the price on big industrial polluters. In a move to the political centre, Mr. Carney has cancelled the hike in capital-gains taxes and promises to cap current immigration targets, spur housing, increase defence spending and cut income taxes.
Mr. Poilievre, who served in Mr. Harper’s cabinet, is a strong communicator. He has talked up his true-blue conservative credentials, promising to turn the economy around through massive tax cuts, spurring a housing boom by cutting red tape, boosting defence spending and being tough on crime.
Both leaders have suggested getting world prices for energy by shipping more to Asia and Europe, but Mr. Poilievre has been much clearer on moving quickly to build pipelines and liquified natural gas facilities on both the East and West coasts.
This election, as always, will be largely fought in central Canada, and both candidates can be expected to spend a lot of time in Quebec and Ontario, particularly the vote-rich 905 area bordering Toronto.
“Ontario will decide who will win and Quebec will decide whether it is a majority or minority government,” Mr. Léger said.
Still, Mr. Léger and Mr. Nanos said the Conservatives are doing well in Ontario, which Mr. Léger attributes to new immigrants. “This is unique because for the last 10 elections, the Liberals were always the leader among the new arrivals,” he said.
The outcome of the election may hinge on what Mr. Trump does on April 2. That’s the day he’s promised to bring in global tariffs, including 25-per-cent levies on all Canadian imports and 10 per cent on the country’s energy, critical minerals and potash. He’s already imposed 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.
“The current ballot question is who can defend Canada, but it could change to who can fight inflation,” Mr. Léger said.
“When the tariffs will be implemented on April 2, and a few days after, people will be hurt on groceries and their purchases, that could change the campaign.”