Since 2000, Canadian federal election turnout has ranged between an all-time low of 58.8 per cent in 2008, and 68.3 per cent in 2015. Voters enter a polling location during early voting in Montreal, on April 19.ANDREJ IVANOV/AFP/Getty Images
Turnout at advance polls for the federal election may have reached a record high this year, but experts say it’s unlikely that will hold true for the election as a whole.
They say that they hope the number of voters will increase because the election is consequential, but turnout will probably not break records because participation in recent elections has been trending lower.
Former chief electoral officer Jean-Pierre Kingsley said there isn’t a correlation between advance voting numbers and overall turnout.
“What we see is that the advance polling always goes up, but at the end of the electoral event, the participation rates fluctuate,” he said.
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This election has been compared with that of 1988, with both focused on trade and Canada’s relationship with the United States. The 1988 election and the one before it, in 1984, both saw a turnout of 75.3 per cent, according to Elections Canada.
Turnout on Monday is likely to be high, but John Beebe of Toronto Metropolitan University and retired Carleton University professor Jon Pammett do not expect it to reach 1988 levels because recent voter turnout has generally been trending downward.
Since 2000, Canadian federal election turnout has ranged between an all-time low of 58.8 per cent in 2008, and 68.3 per cent in 2015. The September, 2021, election, held during the pandemic, saw about 62.6 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot.
Mr. Beebe, who founded TMU’s Democratic Engagement Exchange, said a five-percentage-point increase in voter turnout would be significant, while 10 percentage points would be historic and 15 percentage points would be unprecedented.
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“I think it’s highly unlikely that we’ll see such a big jump, but, you know, there are lots of highly unlikely things [that] have happened recently,” he said.
Prof. Pammett echoed the sentiment, saying that a turnout of 75 per cent would probably be overly optimistic, but it could maybe go up to 70 per cent.
Acadia University professor Alex Marland said that if there is no significant increase, Canada might have a democratic participation problem on its hands.
“If we don’t see record turnout in this election, what would it take?” he said. “There’s so much public conversation. … It’s a storm of everybody everywhere talking about something. And on top of that, Elections Canada has made voting fairly accessible.”
While voter turnout numbers can be difficult to predict, Elections Canada’s advance polls set a new record. An estimated 7.3 million people voted on four days over the Easter long weekend, which is about a quarter of registered voters as of March. The agency said the 2025 advance poll numbers are a 25-per-cent increase over the ones seen in the 2021 election.
As well, Elections Canada has received 1,007,569 mail-in ballots from voters thus far, which is quickly approaching the record 1.17 million ballots received by mail in the 2021 election. The numbers include voters who are living outside the country.
The Ottawa-area riding of Carleton, where Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is seeking re-election, saw more than 43,000 ballots cast at advance polls, according to Elections Canada’s estimates – the most of any riding. More than 32,000 people cast advance votes in the neighbouring riding of Nepean, where Liberal Leader Mark Carney is seeking a seat.
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The counting process on election night depends on how ballots were cast, according to Elections Canada. Ballots cast at polls on election day are counted where voting took place after the polls close.
Ballots from advance polls, meanwhile, are counted at the riding’s local Elections Canada office. While they are normally counted after the polls close on election night, returning officers can request to start counting them up to an hour earlier if there are high volumes.
Special ballots from electors, such as mail-in ballots, are counted at the local Elections Canada office after polls close on election day, while special ballots from outside the voter’s riding are counted at Elections Canada in Ottawa and can begin up to two weeks before election day if needed.
The highest turnout rate for a Canadian election was 79.4 per cent in 1958, when Progressive Conservative leader John Diefenbaker won a majority government.
Looking at the last four elections – 2021, 2019, 2015 and 2011 – Prince Edward Island has had the highest overall turnout of any province or territory, ranging from 72.8 per cent in 2021 to 80 per cent in 2015. Nunavut, meanwhile, has the lowest turnout, ranging from 29.4 per cent in 2021 to 53.1 per cent in 2015.
In Ontario, voter turnout in the past four elections ranged between 57.6 per cent and 66.4 per cent, while in Quebec it was between 63.5 per cent and 67.8 per cent.
With a report from Kobe Tulloch