Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole is at risk of losing the leadership because he failed at the all-important task of preserving unity within the Conservative caucus. But many in that caucus espouse a view of conservatism that has no resonance among most Canadians.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
Erin O’Toole may or may not survive as Leader of the Conservative Party. The more important question is whether the party survives.
By forcing a vote of confidence in his leadership, dissident Conservative MPs have put the future of the party at risk. Its activist base has become so agitated, and so powerful, that either Mr. O’Toole will be crippled as Leader, or he will be replaced by a new leader who is unlikely ever to become prime minister.
The Conservatives could be evolving into an untenable contradiction, in which no one who could lead the party can win the country, and no one who could win the country can lead the party.
Mr. O’Toole is at risk of losing the leadership because he failed at the all-important task of preserving unity within the Conservative caucus. That’s on him. But many in that caucus espouse a view of conservatism that has no resonance among most Canadians.
The Durham MP ran for the leadership as a “true blue” conservative, and then pivoted toward the centre as last year’s election approached. The gamble almost worked: the Conservatives won the popular vote. But they failed to win over the suburbs in Ontario and British Columbia, and as Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, tweeted Wednesday: “Suburbs are the biggest swing group in Canada. This region decides all national elections. Lose the suburbs, lose the election.”
O’Toole scrambles for support to survive leadership threat
Split within the Conservative Party reflects division within the country
Having lost the suburbs and the election, Mr. O’Toole then had to face his caucus. Many felt they had not been properly consulted before the Leader embraced such policies as a carbon tax. Others reject such policies entirely.
Mr. O’Toole alternated between attempting to isolate dissidents, by keeping many of them out of the shadow cabinet, and placating them, by opposing mandatory vaccination for federal employees and essential workers. Neither tactic succeeded.
Word is that if Mr. O’Toole wins the support of a majority of MPs, it will be a narrow win at best.
If he does prevail, then the next question is whether the MPs who voted to remove him will respect the verdict. Some might split from caucus, or seek to undermine the Leader from within. If he loses, some of the moderates may leave.
The greatest problem is that the activist base of the party is becoming more extreme – adding opposition to vaccine mandates to its mantra of supporting gun rights, opposing abortion and questioning the severity of climate change.
Let’s say that, one way or another, they force Mr. O’Toole out. Who would replace him?
Foreign-affairs critic Michael Chong is a thoughtful, experienced MP who represents the partly suburban Ontario riding of Wellington-Halton Hills. But he would have a hard time winning over the same party activists who brought down Mr. O’Toole.
Opinion: It’s not the leader Conservative MPs need to kick out, but some of their own
Former interim leader Rona Ambrose is prime ministerial material; former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown found political resurrection as Mayor of Brampton. But neither might want to lead a Conservative Party controlled by an ideologically rigid base, some of whose members flirt with Western separatism.
Pierre Poilievre is beloved by party activists. The Carleton MP has thoroughly committed himself to solidarity with the truckers and others who have been protesting against vaccine mandates in Ottawa.
But Mr. Poilievre’s strident partisanship will be a hard sell on the streets of Mississauga or Surrey.
Haldimand-Norfolk MP Leslyn Lewis acquitted herself well in the 2020 leadership race, and is well respected by social conservatives in the party. But Canada as a whole is not socially conservative, and Ms. Lewis does not speak French.
If Mr. O’Toole is brought down, he will be the second consecutive Conservative leader forced out of the position in three years. The Conservative movement has fractured in the past ideologically and regionally. Unless the party can unify under a leader with the strength and moderation to lead the country, the movement could split again, into an ideologically pure successor to the Reform Party and a Red Tory rump.
What a glorious time to be a Liberal.
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