It’s now an unmissable ritual: Like extraterrestrials trying to make first contact with the people of the Earth, English-speaking federal political leaders venture onto Quebec’s Tout le monde en parle, hoping to make themselves known to Quebeckers. Now it’s Andrew Scheer’s turn. And not a moment too soon.
Quebec is shaping up to be critical to the fortunes of Mr. Scheer’s Conservatives. The province is full of potential for right-of-centre parties – or it could be where their 2019 election hopes die. There’s an opposition vacuum in federal politics in Quebec right now, and Mr. Scheer needs to step in.
His turn on Tout le monde en parle, a highly rated Sunday-night talk-show happening, is his chance to introduce himself to a broad audience of Quebeckers – nearly a year after he became leader.
The show is often described as make-or-break test for politicians — the late Jack Layton’s 2011 appearance was a springboard for the NDP’s orange wave. But that’s the exception. Current NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh performed well on the show in February, but there’s no real sign it was a game changer for him. Still TLMEP is a rite of passage. A leader must get through it.
Mr. Scheer isn’t yet a household name, but in Quebec he’s an unknown political object. Pollster Jean-Marc Léger noted that when his firm asked Quebeckers whether they approve of Mr. Scheer, nearly half had no opinion.
In another time, that might not matter. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives didn’t win or lose power in Quebec. But things have changed.
At the moment, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are almost uncontested in the province. The NDP and the Conservatives have weak support. The Bloc Québécois seems to be trying to turn its decline into a debacle – seven of 10 MPs quit the party in February, and Leader Martine Ouellet spent Sunday pleading for the survival of her disastrous leadership.
Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals are way ahead. Mr. Léger’s March poll showed 41 per cent of Quebeckers supported Mr. Trudeau’s party, almost 20 points more than the second-placed Conservatives. Nanos Research group’s weekly tracking polls had the Liberals at 50 per cent in Quebec last week – with no other party above 16 per cent. The four-way split that divvied up Quebec seats in 2015 is gone.
The Conservatives don’t just have to try to win a few seats in Quebec – they have to stop the Liberals from sweeping most of the province’s 78 ridings, which would virtually guarantee their re-election.
The good news for Mr. Scheer is that there is opportunity in Quebec. Disaffected Bloc supporters are unlikely to move to Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals. Outside of Montreal, the province is largely small-c conservative, Mr. Léger argues. The right-of-centre Coalition Avenir Québec is leading polls ahead of the fall provincial election – if they win, Mr. Léger believes, it will put a conservative political discourse at the forefront of Quebec politics, and that could be a boost for Mr. Scheer.
The Conservative leader has tried to seize the opportunity. He issued an open letter in March urging nationalists to consider his party. He launched a “listening tour” intended to start the wooing anew. But at the same time, the best-known Quebec Conservative, Beauce MP Maxime Bernier, was making bigger headlines complaining that Mr. Scheer won the leadership through by signing up “fake Conservatives” who wanted to stop Mr. Bernier’s plan to kill dairy supply management in the dairy sector. That both undermined Mr. Scheer and revived Conservative divisions over a policy that is a sacred cow in rural Quebec.
And now Mr. Scheer has to navigate the different flavour of Quebec conservatism. The CAQ’s Quebec election campaign will touch on immigration and the wearing of religious symbols – questions Mr. Scheer would prefer to avoid. Quebeckers are wary of social conservatism, Mr. Léger said, so that vein of the federal party tends to alienate Quebeckers.
Mr. Scheer, a social conservative who downplays those views as party leader, might find it hard to do so on Tout le monde en parle. Host Guy A. Lepage likes to confront guests with things they’ve said in the past. They’re probably looking for a question to test Mr. Scheer’s views on abortion, or whether he’d march in a gay pride parade. But Mr. Scheer has to get through this rite of passage – and quickly, because he can no longer afford to be left behind in Quebec.