Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
After months of stalled negotiations, Dominic LeBlanc, the federal minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, is heading to Washington for high-level trade talks with the Trump administration.
Mr. LeBlanc’s office confirmed Thursday that the minister will be in Washington Friday for a day of talks with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
These are the first formal trade discussions between the U.S. and Canada since President Donald Trump suspended negotiations in October over an anti-tariff television commercial commissioned by the Ontario government.
The discussions will focus on the coming mandatory review of the United States-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement, Mr. LeBlanc’s office said.
The USMCA, sometimes known in Canada as CUSMA, went into effect in 2020, during Mr. Trump’s first term, and replaced the previous North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. The Trump administration has until July 1 to notify the U.S. Congress whether it plans to change the agreement.
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Brian Clow, who handled Canada-U.S. relations under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, said the talks leading up to that deadline are likely to be strained.
Mr. Trump has expressed annoyance at Canada over Ontario’s negative ads, which the province cancelled soon after the President complained. He has also taken issue with Ottawa’s recent deal to allow some electric-vehicle imports from China, and with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum, which indirectly criticized the Trump administration for weaponizing tariffs to bully smaller trading partners.
“Donald Trump is clearly very mad at Canada. But the CUSMA review is coming up and therefore the countries have to meet,” Mr. Clow said. “I don’t expect any breakthroughs coming out of this meeting.”
Mr. Trump has described the North American trade pact, which allows most Canadian goods to cross the border duty-free, as “irrelevant” for the U.S., even though all three economies are highly integrated. He has suggested Washington could leave the pact and strike separate bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico.
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Mr. Clow said he expects the LeBlanc-Greer meeting will be the beginning of “what is going to be a lengthy, messy, up-and-down process that will drag on for months.”
The Americans will continue to “threaten and bully Canada” because they hope Ottawa will cave in to U.S. demands for trade concessions, he predicted.
Mr. Clow said it’s also possible that the President would signal his displeasure at the Prime Minister for pulling back from his initial statement of support for the U.S.-Israel air strikes on Iran.
On Saturday, Mr. Carney endorsed the strikes, but he later criticized the U.S. for failing to consult allies and called for a rapid de-escalation.
“Clearly, they would be happy about the Prime Minister’s initial response on Iran. Will they be annoyed by some of the subsequent statements? Maybe,” he said. “Regardless of Iran, the relations between Canada and the U.S. are strained and they will stay strained for a while, and that’s because Canada isn’t making concessions.”
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On Thursday, Mr. Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard announced the first round of bilateral discussions in preparation for the trilateral trade review.
In a statement, Mr. Greer’s office said the two men instructed negotiators to begin discussions that would focus on “reducing dependence on imports from outside the region, strengthening rules of origin, and enhancing the security of North American supply chains.” Rules of origin are the rules that determine where products are considered to have been made and which duties apply to them.
U.S. and Mexican negotiators are expected to hold the first bilateral discussions during the week of March 16 and meet regularly after.
During a news conference in Australia on Wednesday, Mr. Carney said the trilateral trade pact “effectively has been broken in the short term” by Mr. Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canadian autos, steel and aluminum.
Mr. Carney said Ottawa is looking to the USMCA review as a process to “re-establish the trust” between the two governments, as well as businesses and investors on both sides of the border.