Carney government survives confidence vote on federal budget

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The Liberal government narrowly survived a confidence vote on a motion to approve the 2025 budget, thanks to a handful of abstentions and a last-minute climate pledge from the Prime Minister that won over Green Party MP Elizabeth May.

Members of Parliament approved the budget motion in a 170-168 vote Monday evening, ending days of uncertainty as to whether the opposition parties would defeat the minority Liberal government and trigger a second federal election in a year.

The vote on Mark Carney’s first budget as Prime Minister allows the government to move ahead with what it says is a transformational plan to grow the economy, through more than $140-billion in new spending over five years focused on attracting investments in big infrastructure projects. The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois pointed to the budget’s $78.3-billion deficit as a main reason for opposing the plan.

Two Conservative MPs, Matt Jeneroux and Shannon Stubbs, did not vote. Neither did two NDP MPs, Lori Idlout and Gord Johns.

“New Democrats are choosing stability over political games,” NDP interim leader Don Davies said after the vote, adding that the party’s abstentions had happened because Canadians did not want another election now. Mr. Johns said the NDP were being the “adults in the room.”

Mr. Jeneroux announced earlier this month that he plans to resign as an MP. Ms. Stubbs’s office said the MP is on medical leave, recovering from surgery.

The confidence vote was likely the government’s biggest remaining parliamentary test of the year. The House is scheduled to rise for the holidays on Dec. 12.

There will be other confidence votes before the break to approve day-to-day spending for federal departments, as well as details related to the budget, including a vote on Tuesday afternoon.

The government has permanently shifted the presentation of the budget from spring until fall, meaning there won’t be another budget showdown for a year.

From time to time, there will be other confidence votes on spending bills and other votes that the government declares as confidence matters. Opposition parties also have days sprinkled throughout the year when they can move motions for a vote – including non-confidence motions.

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The government must also win approval of the budget’s specific measures through the passage of likely one or two omnibus budget bills. The Nov. 4 budget references 75 legislative changes to come, a higher number of changes than forecast in the past three budgets.

The Liberals began Monday two votes short of a win, with no clear pledge of support from any of the opposition parties. The government bridged half of that distance in the afternoon.

Ms. May, the lone Green Party MP, rose during Question Period to state that the budget failed to mention Canada’s climate commitments from the Paris Agreement. She asked the Prime Minister whether he could confirm that the government is committed to several environmental policies and meaningful Indigenous reconciliation.

“I can confirm to this House that we will respect our Paris commitments for climate change and we’re determined to achieve them,” he replied.

Ms. May had previously said she could not support the budget as originally proposed, going so far as to stomp derisively on a copy of the budget book. But she also said she was in talks with officials about options that could allow her to change course.

After Question Period, Ms. May said the Prime Minister’s “firm commitment” went further than he has previously stated.

“I‘m going to vote yes for the country, for the planet and for my hope in the future. The Liberals can’t count on me voting confidence in the government again without delivering on the words I heard,” she said.

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A September report by the Canadian Climate Institute said Canada’s emissions are on track to be 20 per cent to 25 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. The report said this “falls far short” of the government’s legislated target of a 40- to 45-per-cent reduction in emissions, which is tied to the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The report noted that recent announcements such as planned expansion of liquefied natural gas production could make Canada’s targets even more challenging to achieve.

Mr. Carney is facing pressure from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to approve a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast and to soften some of Ottawa’s climate policies.

The Liberals hold 170 of the 343 seats in the House of Commons. Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia only votes in the event of a tie.

That effectively brings the Liberal numbers down to 169, while there are 173 opposition MPs, including 143 Conservatives, 22 Bloc MPs, seven NDP MPs and Ms. May.

MPs voted on a motion from Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, asking the House to support the budget.

Earlier amendments to that motion by the Bloc Québécois and Conservatives were both defeated after the Liberals declared those votes matters of confidence.

A prime minister whose government is defeated on a clear confidence vote typically goes to the governor-general to seek the dissolution of Parliament and a federal election campaign.

Earlier in the day, both Ontario Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford and B.C. NDP Premier David Eby urged MPs to support the budget.

With reports from Emily Haws, Laura Stone in Toronto and Justine Hunter in Victoria, B.C.