NDP leader Jagmeet Singh speaks to reporters in the foyer of the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Dec. 14.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
It seems like everyone is giving NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh advice these days, but it turns out he’s doing fine. Or at least, as well as can be expected.
The folks egging him on to break the New Democrats’ parliamentary alliance with the Liberals and trigger a spring election might think that’s best – but it’s not best for the NDP.
Certainly, figuring out how and when to break the deal with the Liberals is going to be a tricky and crucial decision for the NDP. But the odds of success are likely to get better with more time.
So Mr. Singh’s recent musing that he might break the deal if he doesn’t see action from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on health care funding should be seen as an effort to hype his own influence, rather than a bid to trigger an election.
The NDP are still in the business of making demands that the Liberals won’t refuse. That’s so that they can argue they forced Mr. Trudeau to do NDP things.
That, after all, was one of the key purposes of the confidence-and-supply agreement that Mr. Singh’s NDP struck with Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals in March. In return for NDP support of their government through confidence votes, the Liberals agreed to adopt parts of the NDP agenda, including a slapdash dental-benefit program and cheques for low-income earners.
When he suggested he might break the deal over health care funding, he was adding something new that was not in that agreement – but also something he expects the Liberals to deliver in some form or another.
That may or may not help Mr. Singh win votes in the next election, but it is certainly part of the federal NDP tradition of trying to influence governments from third- or fourth-party status – and to argue they can affect Canadians lives, even if their leader is not prime minister. And when the next election comes, Mr. Singh isn’t going to convince voters he is in the running for that job.
The New Democrats have faced a lot of criticism over the deal, but apparently it hasn’t scared away their supporters. Last week, the latest Nanos Research poll put the party at 21 per cent, roughly the same level it has been at since the last election. Mr. Singh hasn’t provided inspiring leadership, but his supporters are still there.
The parliamentary alliance is still providing the NDP with another important thing they were looking for when they signed it in March: time.
The party started the year with an outstanding $18-million bank loan secured by pending election rebates, so it still has some fundraising to do before they have a secure war chest.
And the NDP machine, which overlaps federal and provincial party lines, has some of its attention elsewhere. The last thing Rachel Notley’s Alberta NDP want is a spring federal election campaign – with Mr. Trudeau on the hustings and Mr. Singh promoting federal NDP climate policies – just before the provincial vote slated for May 29.
Of course, Mr. Singh will eventually have to break with Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals to oppose them rather than be seen as their allies. And the manner of the break will be critical.
But the road to NDP success is typically in winning voters who swing between supporting Liberals and New Democrats.
The Liberals typically close out their campaigns by trying to convince those swing voters that they have to stop the Conservatives from winning. When an election is close, the NDP can get squeezed.
At the moment, the polls are close. The Liberals will plan to campaign calling on “progressive” votes to stop Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre from becoming prime minister.
But it’s not as effective when the race is not tight, or when those NDP supporters don’t feel they can hold their nose to vote Liberal – such as when the Liberals were weighed down by scandals in 2006 or led by an unpopular leader, Michael Ignatieff, in 2011.
And if there is one thing that is likely to wear on Mr. Singh’s Liberal opponent, it is time. Mr. Trudeau is already in his eighth year as Prime Minister. Already, he is far from the popular figure he was in 2015, and if past trends are repeated, his personal appeal will only fade further.
Mr. Singh can afford to wait a little. In the meantime, the NDP is doing as well as can be expected.