Workers pose with Liberal leader Mark Carney as he makes a campaign stop at an auto parts factory, on April 4, in Vaughan.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
A majority of Canadians believe the trade war with the United States is more likely to benefit the Liberals than other parties in the federal election, according to a new public opinion poll.
The same survey, conducted by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail and CTV, also found that more respondents said they trust Liberal Leader Mark Carney to keep his promises than Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
The poll surveyed about 1,200 people from March 28 to March 30 and asked them several questions about the federal election and leadership.
Fifty-six per cent of respondents said the Liberals, now seeking a fourth term in government under new Leader Mr. Carney, are benefiting from the trade tension, compared with 16 per cent for the Conservatives and 1 per cent for the NDP. About 11 per cent said there was no difference, while 15 per cent said they were unsure on the issue.
U.S. President Donald Trump has spent months imposing and threatening to impose tariffs on Canada and other countries.
Mr. Trump has already hit many Canadian imports with 25-per-cent tariffs that he argues are related to fentanyl imports, as well as 25-per-cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum. Additional tariffs took effect this week on automobiles, though Canada was not affected by yet another round of tariffs announced on what the President had called “Liberation Day.”
Former prime minister Justin Trudeau had imposed retaliatory tariffs in March, and earlier this week Mr. Carney, in his role as Prime Minister, announced new tariffs on U.S.-made automobiles.
Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said that, if he becomes prime minister, he would seek the immediate renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is due for renewal next year.
Mr. Poilievre has also threatened to revoke defence and market access agreements with Washington if it violated a renegotiated trade deal with Canada.
The trade war with the U.S., combined with Mr. Trudeau’s resignation, has been widely attributed for a dramatic change in fortunes for the Liberals. Polls had suggested the party was headed for certain defeat just a few months ago, but recent surveys show the party with a lead of nearly 10 percentage points.
Nik Nanos, the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said the results show Mr. Carney has an advantage as the current prime minister.
In an e-mail exchange, Mr. Nanos said his team saw a similar dynamic in the recent Ontario election where Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford also appeared to benefit from the focus on Mr. Trump. Mr. Ford, who was outspoken about the U.S. President, went on to lead his party to its third majority government.
“In this dynamic, Mr. Carney benefits from the focus and crowds out his opponent Mr. Poilievre,” Mr. Nanos wrote.
However, he said that a period of less focus on Mr. Trump and U.S. relations could level the playing field between the two front-running parties.
Mr. Nanos noted that even committed Conservative voters are more likely to recognize that the Liberal Party benefits from the tension (46 per cent) compared with the Conservatives (27 per cent).
The Nanos poll also found that Mr. Carney appears to have a trust advantage over Mr. Poilievre, with 48 per cent of respondents trusting the Liberal Leader to keep their promises compared with 27 per cent for the Conservative Leader.
Even undecided voters are more likely to trust Mr. Carney over Mr. Poilievre, according to the research, with 32 per cent support for the Liberal Leader amongst this cohort compared to 10 per cent trust for Mr. Poilievre. Still, 31 per cent did not trust either leader and 23 per cent were unsure.
Mr. Nanos said Mr. Carney was ahead of Mr. Poilievre in every region of the country except in the Prairies where Mr. Poilievre is ahead.
“What is interesting is that although the Conservatives lead among male voters in ballot support, Poilievre trails Carney on trust among male voters and significantly trails among female voters,” Mr. Nanos wrote in an e-mail exchange.
The poll by Nanos Research, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, surveyed 1,239 Canadians from March 28 to March 30. It has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Respondents were asked: “Which party, if any, do you think most benefits from the tension in the Canada-US relationship?” and “Of the two federal party leaders most likely to win the next federal election, who do you trust most to keep campaign promises if they win?”
The full methodology for all surveys can be found at: tgam.ca/polls