Supporters watch results at the Liberal Party campaign headquarters on election night in Ottawa.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
The Liberal Party faced its most disappointing results in Monday night’s election in Ontario, losing ground to the Conservatives, particularly in the suburban 905 region that surrounds Toronto.
The shifting puzzle pieces of Canada’s electoral map did see Liberal Leader Mark Carney benefit from a slide in Bloc Québécois support in Quebec, amid anxiety over the tariff and annexation threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.
The Liberals failed to make a breakthrough in Alberta, again ending up with just two seats in the largely Conservative province. In B.C., the Conservatives outpaced the Liberals but both parties gained seats, while the NDP all but collapsed.
Liberals projected to return to power with fourth consecutive mandate
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made breakthroughs in the Toronto-area ridings of the 905 area, named for its telephone area code, as well as strong showings elsewhere.
While the map still showed a large patch of Liberal red in the party’s strongholds in the Greater Toronto Area, several races in the region there were extremely tight. In some ridings, evaporating NDP support did not translate into expected Liberal wins.
In the 905, Conservative Costas Menegaskis defeated Liberal Leah Taylor Roy in Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill, a riding the Liberals won by a razor-thin margin in 2021. The Conservatives also flipped Liberal ridings in Newmarket-Aurora and Brampton West, and Markham–Unionville, where Liberal Paul Chiang quit after a scandal over comments he made about handing a rival over to Chinese authorities.
Overall, the Liberals were elected or leading in 69 seats in the province early Tuesday, down from the 78 they took in 2021. The Conservatives were leading or elected in 55, and the NDP were shut out completely in the country’s most populous province.
Poll workers and electors at the Firefighters Banquet and Conference Centre in Burnaby, B.C.Tijana Martin/The Globe and Mail
In Quebec, the Bloc was set to win just 23 seats, down from the 32 they won in 2021. The Liberals were leading in, or had won, 43 ridings in Quebec, compared to the 35 they took in the last election.
In the West, Liberals also fell short of some hoped-for breakthroughs.
They were aiming for gains in Alberta’s two largest cities but preliminary results showed Conservatives sweeping all but three of the 37 seats across the province.
Standing out in a sea of blue late on Monday were orange and red blips in Edmonton: NDP’s Heather McPherson in Edmonton Strathcona and Liberal Eleanor Olszewski in Edmonton Centre were both projected to win. In Calgary, Liberal Corey Hogan was projected to win.
The Liberals and NDP each won two seats in 2021.
Tom Vernon, a senior consultant with Crestview Strategy, said it was a “long shot” for the Liberals to make gains in Alberta: “There simply isn’t the same level of Liberal ground game here to get their vote out.”
Amarjeet Sohi, Edmonton mayor and former federal Liberal cabinet minister, lost to Conservative candidate Jagsharan Singh Mahal in the riding of Edmonton Southeast. George Chahal, who was the lone Liberal to claim a seat in Calgary in 2021, also lost in the new riding of Calgary McKnight against Conservative Dalwinder Gill.
Another Liberal government in Ottawa was expected to stoke frustration in Alberta, with Premier Danielle Smith having said Canada would face an “unprecedented national unity crisis” if the next prime minister doesn’t meet her energy policy demands, a shot aimed at Mr. Carney.
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals largely stood pat. They were elected in 24 of the region’s 32 seats, matching their 2021 total, while a riding in Newfoundland was too close to call.
The Conservatives picked up one seat in Newfoundland, while the Liberals flipped a seat from the Conservatives in Nova Scotia.
The battle in Ontario was coloured by open criticism of the federal Conservative campaign from Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford and his key strategist, Kory Teneycke. As polls showed Mr. Poilievre’s 20-plus point lead evaporating, Mr. Teneycke said the federal Conservatives were guilty of “campaign malpractice at the highest level.”
Mr. Ford had previously told reporters that if Mr. Teneycke had been running the federal campaign, things would have gone better for Mr. Poilievre.
Re-elected Conservative Jamil Jivani, who once served as an adviser to Doug Ford, ripped into the Ontario Premier during a live interview on CBC News. Mr. Jivani, who represents the Toronto-area riding of Durham, criticized the Premier as a “hype man” for the Liberal Party and called him “a problem for Ontario and for Canada.”
In B.C., Conservatives were leading or elected in 20 seats, again up seven from their 2021 total, while the Liberals were up four seats to 19. The NDP were set to end up with just three, after winning 13 in the last election. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh stepped down after losing his own riding in Burnaby Central. Meanwhile, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May managed to keep her seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands, which she has held since 2011.
Saskatchewan was also almost entirely blue, with the Liberals taking just one of its 14 seats, the northern riding of Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River. Manitobans elected seven Conservatives, six Liberals and 1 New Democrat. The Liberals picked up Churchill–Keewatinook Aski, a longtime NDP stronghold held by Niki Ashton since 2008.
With a report from Skye Anderson in Winnipeg, Laura Stone in Toronto and Lindsay Jones in Halifax