Prime Minister Justin Trudeau walks past members of his cabinet after speaking to reporters during the Liberal Cabinet retreat in Charlottetown, P.E.I. on Aug. 23.Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press
The federal Liberal caucus is gathering in London, Ont., this week to regroup, after a summer in which the party’s popularity declined among voters feeling the squeeze from inflation and a housing shortage.
The three-day retreat, which begins Tuesday, will take place a week before the House of Commons returns from its summer recess. Since MPs were last together more than two months ago, many public opinion polls have registered a decline in the Liberal minority government’s prospects.
Abacus Data chief executive officer David Coletto said polling by his company suggests the government is faring more poorly than ever before, by every metric Abacus tracks. Perceptions of the government’s performance, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s personal favourability rating, the desire for change among Canadians and their vote intentions are all “incredibly bad for the Liberals right now,” he said.
“They’re facing a really hostile environment,” he added.
If an election were held this month, the most recent polling from Abacus shows that 40 per cent of respondents would vote for the Conservatives, compared to just 26 per cent for the Liberals. Nineteen per cent would vote for the NDP, and 6 per cent would vote for the Bloc Québécois, according to the poll.
On issues such as managing the cost of living, growing the economy and building more housing, most respondents said they believe the government has either no plan or a bad plan. “I don’t think people feel the government has any sense of how to get out of this,” Mr. Coletto said.
The online survey of 3,595 respondents was conducted between Aug. 29 and Sept. 4.
Three sources with direct knowledge told The Globe and Mail that the Liberals are dispirited, and that MPs in swing ridings, in particular, are worried about losing their seats and wondering if they should run again. The sources also said MPs are frustrated with the Prime Minister’s Office and baffled by the party’s decision not to respond to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s efforts to define himself with an ad campaign, which the Tories rolled out earlier this summer.
The Globe is not naming the sources because they were not authorized to discuss the private conversations.
Liberal MPs acknowledged in interviews that their constituents are facing acute affordability and housing concerns. But they were divided over how much the government needs to change, and how seriously to take the polls, considering the fact that the next election is not scheduled to happen for another two years.
After a summer spent door-knocking, Brendan Hanley, the Liberal MP for Yukon and the party’s caucus chair for the Prairies and the North, said polls show Canadians are frustrated and struggling. He said affordability and housing are top concerns for voters, followed by health care and the effects of climate change. Households and small businesses alike are looking for help, he added.
He said he believes past federal investments in housing, child care and dental care have made a difference. But he said there is still more for the government to “catch up on.” For example, he said, the government could extend the deadline for small businesses to pay back their federal pandemic loans.
He argued that the government needs to be more effective in how it communicates with voters about what it is doing.
“We know where we are in the polls, but we’ve got time,” Mr. Hanley said.
On the East Coast, affordability, housing, the economy and climate change are also top of mind, according to Kody Blois, a Nova Scotia MP and the Liberal Party’s Atlantic caucus chair. He said he hopes the government focuses squarely on those issues as it returns to the House of Commons next week.
The Liberals need to show voters that the government has a plan to build on its past work easing affordability concerns, Mr. Blois said. One way to help Canadians, he said, would be to remove the carbon tax from home-heating fuel and increase the carbon tax rebate for rural residents, who have no way of taking public transit.
Mr. Blois said he believes the carbon tax is the “right policy approach,” but that it needs some adjustments “to better reflect the realities of the people I represent.”
In Calgary, George Chahal, the Liberals’ only MP from the city, said his constituents are juggling multiple jobs and living in multi-generational homes to make ends meet. But he said the government is contending with a “tough balancing act” as it tries to roll out targeted supports that don’t inadvertently fuel inflation.
Mr. Chahal said housing is a key priority, and that one thing Ottawa could do to help municipalities is ensure the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation adheres to faster timelines for project approvals. Overall, he said, he believes the government has time to execute on its housing plans and show progress before the next election.
James Maloney, a Toronto Liberal MP and the party’s Ontario caucus chair, said he is also optimistic about the government’s prospects. But he said there is a “communication gap” between what the government has done on housing and what people are aware of.
“Polls go up and down. I think we need to stay the course,” Mr. Maloney said.
He added that while polls may be a reflection of the fact that “times are tough,” he doesn’t believe they are “a reflection of bad policy on the part of the federal government.”