Should he emerge as the winner when the results are announced on March 9, Mark Carney would be in a position to become prime minister after Justin Trudeau, formally resigns.Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press
Canadian politics could be heading for an extremely rare situation: a prime minister who doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons.
While the ultimate result is unclear, Mark Carney is currently leading the pack of Liberal Party leadership candidates in terms of high-profile endorsements. Should he emerge as the winner when the results are announced on March 9, the former central bank governor would be in a position to become prime minister after the current prime minister, Justin Trudeau, formally resigns.
Research compiled by the Library of Parliament for The Globe and Mail and interviews with historians indicate that having a prime minister without a seat in Parliament has been an exceedingly rare occurrence since 1931, when a legal change ended a requirement for prime ministers and ministers appointed after an election to vacate their seats and run in a by-election. Prior to that, there were a handful of cases of a prime minister governing without a seat, but most were tied to the by-election rule.
The situation can also occur in the event that a prime minister loses their seat in a general election, but chooses to stay on as prime minister and run again in a by-election, as occurred in February, 1926, with prime minister William Lyon Mackenzie King, who returned to the House of Commons after his personal defeat in the October, 1925, election. King also lost his seat in the 1945 general election but stayed on as prime minister and returned to the House in a by-election later that year.
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The most recent instance was when John Turner became Liberal prime minister in 1984, succeeding Mr. Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau.
In that case, Mr. Turner won the Liberal Party leadership on June 16, 1984, and became prime minister two weeks later. Rather than running in a by-election, he quickly dissolved Parliament in early July and ran as a candidate in a federal election called for September. Mr. Turner won his seat but the Liberals lost the election to Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives.
Barbara Messamore, who chairs the history department at the University of the Fraser Valley, said the Turner situation is the only example that is really analogous to what may happen should Mr. Carney win.
Ms. Messamore said in an interview that while the potential situation is unusual, it is consistent with Canada’s system of parliamentary government.
“It’s just sometimes there’s a long time between parallel circumstances,” she said. “It is entirely legitimate, but it’s something we always have to explain to our American friends: How can you become prime minister when you haven’t been elected, right?”
Whether the House of Commons will sit at all under the next Liberal leader is an open question. The new leader could opt to trigger a federal election before the House is scheduled to resume sitting on March 24. At the moment, the three main opposition parties are vowing to defeat the government at the earliest opportunity.
The next federal election is scheduled to take place in October, or sooner if the minority government is defeated on a confidence vote. Surviving beyond March would require some sort of negotiation by the Liberals with the Conservatives, the Bloc Québécois or the NDP, but none of the parties are currently expressing openness to such a scenario.
Another unknown is when exactly Mr. Trudeau will resign as prime minister to allow the new Liberal leader to also take the reins of government.
The Prime Minister’s Office did not respond to questions seeking clarity on his intentions.
Carleton University history professor Norman Hillmer, who co-authored a book ranking Canada’s prime ministers, said he would expect Mr. Carney to run in a by-election if for some reason the Liberals survive the initial return of House of Commons sittings.
“One imagines that, if Mark Carney becomes party leader and prime minister, he will be represented in the House of Commons by someone he designates to be his representative,” Prof. Hillmer said in an e-mail.
Daniel Savoie, a spokesperson for the Privy Council Office, said in an e-mail that when an outgoing prime minister is resigning for a reason other than an electoral defeat, the governor-general seeks the outgoing prime minister’s advice as to a successor.
“The date of the swearing-in of the new ministry is then determined by the prime minister and the prime minister-designate,” he said.
When asked for comment, Emily Williams, a spokesperson for Mr. Carney’s campaign, did not directly address the scenario of Mr. Carney becoming prime minister without a seat in the House of Commons.
At a news conference in Halifax Friday, Mr. Carney was asked where he intends to run for a seat in Parliament.
He said there’s new interest from people who want to run for the Liberal Party in the next campaign.
“That means that the number of ridings in which I could potentially run is diminishing – that’s a good thing, by the way,” he said. “I’ll be making a decision in due course, and I look forward to putting myself forward for a riding.”