Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his inner circle have thus far declined to say what percentage of the vote they’d consider a sufficient benchmark for him to remain.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and a team of loyalists are working to ensure that party members are on side with his leadership ahead of a vote on his future later this month.
Though Mr. Poilievre is widely expected to win the Jan. 30 vote, they are not leaving the end result to chance.
Mr. Poilievre is holding private meet-and-greets across the country with delegates to the Calgary convention, giving them an opportunity to express their concerns to him directly and allowing him to make the case that he should remain.
A meeting for Ottawa-area delegates held on Saturday was billed as a “Conservative appreciation event” with Mr. Poilievre.
“This is an opportunity to celebrate the hard work and dedication of our grassroots members,” said the invitation, a copy of which was obtained by The Globe and Mail.
Meanwhile, those in Mr. Poilievre’s inner circle are holding their own meetings and putting in calls to members to hear their concerns and advocate for Mr. Poilievre, five sources told The Globe.
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The Globe is not naming the sources because they were not authorized to discuss internal party matters.
Those involved in the effort include strategist Hamish Marshall and MP Arpan Khanna, both key players in Mr. Poilievre’s leadership win in 2022.
Both men declined to be interviewed.
The Conservative Party’s constitution mandates that a leadership review vote must be held when a leader loses an election, as Mr. Poilievre did this spring.
He did, however, pick up more seats for the Conservatives and took its share of the popular vote to levels not seen in decades – messages that he and his team are stressing to party members in the meetings.
The party’s constitution also says that Mr. Poilievre needs more than 50 per cent of the votes cast to remain as leader.
But getting a simple majority does not assure that he’ll stay on; in 2022, Jason Kenney stepped down as leader of the United Conservative Party in Alberta after winning 51.4 per cent in a review vote.
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Mr. Poilievre and his inner circle have thus far declined to say what percentage they’d consider a sufficient benchmark for him to remain.
His leadership review is the first for the Conservative Party since 2005. Andrew Scheer lost an election in 2019 but stepped down before a leadership review could be held. Erin O’Toole lost the 2021 election and then was removed as leader by his MPs.
Stephen Harper faced party members after he lost the 2004 election. In 2005, he won 84 per cent of the vote.
Ian Brodie, a member of Mr. Harper’s inner circle, said the result took work.
There was the ground game of reaching out to delegates ahead of time, and then also engaging with them at the convention itself, he said.
There was also the matter of Mr. Harper’s speech, which took place right before the vote, and focused on the path ahead, he said.
“The context was important – Mr. Harper had overdelivered on the 2004 election, and he had to rise above the fray to show the path to victory. Delegates wanted to see that,” Mr. Brodie said.
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Mr. Poilievre is also scheduled to give a speech ahead of this month’s vote.
“This time, the psychology is different,” Mr. Brodie said.
“Thirteen months ago, we were 26 points ahead. Didn’t win. What does Mr. Poilievre make of that? That’s the challenge.”
After his leadership review, Mr. Harper went on to win the 2006, 2008 and 2011 elections.
He stepped down in 2015 after losing to the Liberals.
The Conservatives hold conventions roughly every other year, depending on when elections fall.
While they were due for a convention this year, the party had originally planned to hold it later in the year. They then moved up the date so the leadership review would be dealt with sooner.
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The party’s 2023 convention in Quebec City saw upward of 3,000 people attend.
It’s not yet known how many delegates will be in Calgary to cast a ballot. There are external factors playing into attendance.
The Ontario Progressive Conservatives are holding their convention the exact same weekend, a decision they said they made because it was best for them.
But it means some Ontario-based delegates are opting to stay closer to home rather than travel to Calgary.
Other Conservatives are saving their money to attend another marquee event – celebrations in Ottawa to mark 20 years since Mr. Harper took office.
Those are scheduled for the week after the Calgary convention.