Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks at Canada's Building Trades Unions (CBTU) conference in Gatineau, Que., on May 9.Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press
Four by-elections will take place on June 19 in what pollsters are saying is the first big electoral test of Pierre Poilievre and his campaign team since becoming Conservative leader.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Sunday that a by-election will be held in the Winnipeg South Centre seat left vacant after the death of former Liberal cabinet minister Jim Carr.
He said in a statement that three more by-elections will be held to replace MPs who have retired from federal politics: former Liberal cabinet minister Marc Garneau (Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount in Quebec); former Conservative interim leader Candice Bergen (Portage-Lisgar in Manitoba); and Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie (Oxford in Ontario).
Pollster Nik Nanos said the by-elections will be “trial runs” to test the Conservatives’ messaging and campaigns under Mr. Poilievre, who became leader in September last year. He said the stakes are exceptionally high for both Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Trudeau.
The chairman of Nanos Research said Canadians will be watching closely at how Mr. Poilievre’s party performs, and if it increases its share of the vote.
He said the by-election results will be a sign of whether the Tories are gaining ground in preparation for the next general election, much like a school “pop quiz” is an indication of how someone might do on a final exam.
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Mr. Nanos said voters feel more like “free agents” while voting in by-elections because the outcome will not affect who forms a government.
There has been one by-election since Mr. Poilievre took the helm. It was in the Ontario riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore, which was comfortably held by the Liberals.
Pollster Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, said the by-elections were “the first major test” for Mr. Poilievre and his team, as well as his party’s campaign strategy and operations. There have not been four federal by-elections held on the same day since 2017. Mr. Maggi said “the Liberals still have a great ground game.”
He said people would be watching to see if the Conservatives look like they are “playing defence” rather than offence, and whether they have “narrow holds” in Conservative-held seats or surge ahead.
Mr. Poilievre’s Conservatives face complications in two safe Tory seats which could affect the result.
In the Ontario riding of Oxford, Mr. MacKenzie, who is retiring, has voiced his public support for local realtor David Hilderley, who is seeking the Liberal nomination.
He made the surprise endorsement for a Liberal after Mr. Poilievre and former leader Andrew Scheer backed Arpan Khanna, a prominent Ontario Conservative and former member of Mr. Poilievre’s leadership campaign team, as Conservative candidate.
The People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier has said he will run in the rural Manitoba seat previously held by Ms. Bergen, who stepped down as a member of Parliament in February. Mr. Bernier’s decision to run risks splitting the right-of-centre vote.
Mr. Maggi said it would be “a catastrophe’ and “a huge upset” for Mr. Poilievre if the Conservatives lost the seat to the People’s Party, which placed second in the Manitoba seat at the 2021 general election.