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Hello, welcome to Politics Insider. Let’s look at what happened today.

Elizabeth May, the lone Green Party MP in the House of Commons, says she will vote for the government’s budget today.

But by mid-afternoon, the outcome of the evening confidence vote on the federal budget remained uncertain.

Bill Curry and Stephanie Levitz report that May said her decision is based on a commitment made by Prime Minister Mark Carney during Question Period that he will support Canada’s climate targets.

“Without what I heard from the Prime Minister today, I would have voted no,” May said.

May’s decision still leaves the minority Liberal government one vote short.

Asked today on Parliament Hill if the budget was going to pass, Liberal cabinet minister Wayne Long crossed his fingers and said “here’s hoping.”

While various Liberals on Parliament Hill have expressed their expectation that the government will survive, no opposition party leaders have, this afternoon, clearly pledged to act in a way that would avoid an election.

A vote is scheduled to take place at 6:45 p.m. ET on a motion from Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne. The motion states: “That this House approve in general the budgetary policy of the government.”

Champagne said the mood of Canadians is for Canada to “go forward” with the budget plan.

“So it’s really a question for the opposition,” he said Monday on Parliament Hill.

In other news, noted American actor Richard Gere told journalists on Parliament Hill that he’s worried about the Canada-U.S. relationship.

The star of such films as An Officer and a Gentleman, Pretty Woman and Chicago was in Ottawa for Tibet Day on Parliament Hill. Gere has been an advocate for human rights in Tibet, and critical of China’s government.

Gere told journalists, including Stephanie Levitz, he is worried about Canadian-U.S. relations.

“Obviously you know it’s a bit strained right now, but I think we can remember that this administration is not going to be there forever,” he said.

Gere was referring to U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Trump has been dismissive about Canadian sovereignty and launched a program of tariffs that have stoked trade tensions.

But he raised concerns about efforts by Carney’s government to improve relations with China as a response to tensions with the United States.

“I think to make corrections in the relationship with China as a correction with the United States, I think, is problematic,” he said.

“I think we should just take a deep breath, relax a little bit and look at things realistically.”

Open this photo in gallery:

Prime Minister Mark Carney exits the House of Commons after attending Question Period on Parliament Hill on Monday.DAVE CHAN/AFP/Getty Images

What else is going on

Inflation eases to 2.2% in October: Cheaper prices at the gas pumps and grocery stores helped bring down inflation in October, Statistics Canada said today.

CRA may get power to file some low-income taxes: The Carney government intends to propose legislative amendments that would give the Canada Revenue Agency the authority to file tax returns for some low-income Canadians even without their express consent.

Ottawa, Manitoba to pursue Port of Churchill development: The federal and Manitoba governments have increased their funding toward a major expansion of the port as the centrepiece of a corridor for exports and other infrastructure in the Hudson Bay region.

B.C. NDP back Eby: Almost 83 per cent of delegates attending a party convention this weekend signalled their support for Premier David Eby by not asking for a leadership review.

Quebec Liberals denounce PQ independent currency plan: Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has promised to hold a sovereignty referendum during his first term if elected to government, says an independent Quebec would have its own currency.

Indigenous artifacts being returned by the Vatican to arrive in December: The return follows a long campaign to secure the release of the items from the Vatican Museums.

Political lives, Lise Bacon: Quebec’s first-ever female deputy premier died on Oct. 29 in Montreal at the age of 91,


On our radar

Prime Minister’s Day: Mark Carney chaired a virtual First Ministers meeting and attended Question Period in the afternoon.

Party Leaders: Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet participated in Question Period. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May attended the House of Commons. Interim NDP Leader Don Davies was scheduled to hold a news conference following the budget vote. No schedule released for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

New UN ambassador on duty: David Lametti, the former federal cabinet minister and principal secretary for Prime Minister Mark Carney, has today started his role as Canada’s ambassador to the United Nations. Departing ambassador Bob Rae noted Lametti’s arrival in a posting today on X.

Swedish Royal Visit: Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia begin a visit to Canada on Tuesday. They will be accompanied by Deputy Prime Minister, Ebba Busch, and Sweden’s Defence Minister Pål Jonson. Richard Wagner, the chief justice of the Supreme Court of Canada, is standing in at visit events for Governor General Mary Simon as she recovers, at home, from a respiratory illness. The visit to Ottawa and Montreal comes as Saab AB, one of Sweden’s most prominent companies, is talking to Canada and Bombardier Inc. about building Saab’s Gripen fighter jets in Canada. This week’s events include a discussion at the National Arts Centre on Canada and Sweden supporting Ukraine and a state dinner at Rideau Hall, as well as the royal couple hosting a dinner for Canadian guests. The delegation is also visiting Montreal.

Premiers and Governors: Newfoundland and Labrador’s new premier, Tony Wakeham, is hosting New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers at their 46th annual conference in St. John’s today. Canadians at the table are New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt, Prince Edward Island Premier Rob Lantz, Nova Scotia Growth Minister Colton LeBlanc and Quebec Economy Minister Christine Fréchette. Representatives from Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Maine are also attending.

NDP candidates confirmed: The NDP has confirmed five candidates will participate in the first official debate for the party’s ongoing leadership contest. The confirmed participants for the Nov. 27 event in Montreal are Rob Ashton, Tanille Johnston, Avi Lewis, Heather McPherson, and Tony McQuail. The debate will largely be held in French. It will take place in a studio setting without a live audience. A second official leadership debate will take place in the Vancouver region in February. The new leader will be announced at the party’s national convention in Winnipeg on March 29.


Quote of the Day

“It’s in the best interest of the country to make sure we pass this budget.” – Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a Progressive Conservative, during a scrum with reporters today at Queen’s Park in Toronto. Ford was referring to the fate of the federal budget.


Question period

Prime Minister Mark Carney was in Winnipeg this past weekend for the Grey Cup. Who was the first Canadian prime minister to do the first kick off at a Grey Cup game?

Scroll to the bottom of this newsletter for the answer.


Perspectives

If Canada wants to recapture the national ambition of the 1960s, it must seriously cut the bloat

Ottawa is setting Canada on a new course, one that looks to natural resources and large infrastructure projects to reduce our economic dependence on the U.S. economy. The One Canada Economy Act and the recent federal budget provide the blueprint, and the Major Projects Office will lead the charge. The approach holds promise, and polls suggest that Canadians support it.

Donald Savoie is the author of Speaking Truth to Canadians about Their Public Service.

What will you sacrifice for Carney and country?

More than a year ago, when the world was a brighter and less orange place, The Globe and Mail ran a simple, modest series. It was called “Prosperity’s Path.” Over five essays, the scholar Dan Breznitz laid bare all that was wrong with Canada’s economy and explained how to fix it. (Did you know that Canada is among the world’s top 10 exporters of stolen cars?)

Ethan Lou, Opinion Editor, Report on Business

The idea of a mixed fleet of Canadian fighter jets should not take flight

With the King of Sweden set to visit Canada this week, in part to sell Gripen aircraft from the Swedish company Saab, there is talk that Canada could reduce its order for the fifth-generation F-35s in favour of the 4.5-plus-generation Gripen. This would be a major mistake, both operationally and logistically, as well as financially.

Lieutenant-General (retired) Yvan Blondin was commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force from 2012 to 2015. Justin Massie is a professor of political science at UQAM and co-director of the Network for Strategic Analysis.

Go deeper

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The answer to today’s question: John Diefenbaker, prime minister from 1957 to 1963, attended the Grey Cup held in Toronto in 1957 and did the kick-off honours, according to the Library of Parliament. The 1957 Grey Cup pit the Hamilton Tiger-Cats against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Hamilton won 32-7.

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