Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a news conference in Delta B.C., on Jan. 16.ETHAN CAIRNS/The Canadian Press
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are certain they have the money to beat the Liberals in the next campaign: In 2024, they raised $41.7-million, more than double their rivals.
But what’s less certain for Mr. Poilievre’s party is the ballot-box question for that campaign.
For two years, they’ve framed what’s coming as the “carbon-tax election,” a slogan putting the Liberals’ carbon-pricing program at the centre of the Conservatives’ assertion that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s policies have harmed the country and it is time for a change.
Now, contenders to replace Mr. Trudeau are promising to ditch the carbon fuel charge for consumers. In the meantime, a major threat has emerged to Canadians’ cost-of-living challenges: U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 25-per-cent, across-the-board tariff on Canadian imports.
The Globe and Mail spoke with 12 Conservatives – among them current and former MPs, candidates, strategists and long-time organizers – about how the rapidly changing political landscape could shift the party’s plans. The Globe is not identifying them so they could be candid with their insights.
As much as Mr. Poilievre will continue to say “carbon-tax election,” the insiders acknowledge a referendum on carbon pricing won’t be the central feature of the next campaign.
That’s not because Liberal leadership front-runners Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland are both promising to do away with consumer carbon pricing. The Conservatives’ response has been to accuse them of lying, or trying to trick Canadians.
“Carbon Tax Carney will give you a pause in the Liberal tax for a few months just to get through the election and then he’ll bring in the mother of all carbon taxes,” Mr. Poilievre claimed in a video statement Friday after Mr. Carney announced his policy.
A spokesperson for Mr. Poilievre pointed to Mr. Carney’s Friday announcement as evidence that the next election remains about carbon pricing because Mr. Carney’s plan does still include one. The spokesperson said Mr. Carney’s policy will drive jobs to the U.S. at a time when Canadians cannot afford that.
Mr. Carney’s plan includes a new “carbon border-adjustment mechanism,” a tariff on imports from countries with environmental policies the government considers substandard.
He would also keep in place the federally-mandated framework for a price on emissions by large industries. Mr. Poilievre has not said whether he would change or remove that.
“In the upcoming carbon tax election Canadians will have the chance to decide between Pierre Poilievre’s common sense Conservatives who will axe the tax for everyone, everywhere, once and for all and the Just Like Justin Liberals who will impose an even bigger carbon tax under a new name,” Sebastian Skamski said in an e-mail.
Mr. Poilievre will hammer whoever wins the leadership as being “just like Justin,” the Conservative insiders say, and tie them as often as they can to the past decade of Liberal governance, carbon pricing included.
The insiders point to a phrase Mr. Poilievre is now using as a sign of how things are shifting for the Conservative Leader: “Canada First. Canada Last. Canada Always.”
The Conservatives were always planning a 2025 softening of Mr. Poilievre’s attack-dog persona, a reframing intended to showcase him as more of a statesman. Recently, for example, a campaign-style event at a construction site featured Mr. Poilievre not in the casual clothes he normally wears for such events but in a suit and tie.
Now the framing will also need to pit him against Mr. Trump and his America-first agenda.
Late Friday, the White House said tariffs would be imposed on Saturday, and economists have warned they would severely hamper the Canadian economy.
This will matter for Mr. Poilievre’s oft-stated pledge to “fix the budget.” His plan would be complicated by a multibillion-dollar bailout package to shore up the Canadian economy.
Mr. Poilievre has not said whether he would support a bailout package, if one is presented in the House of Commons. He opposed the scope of stimulus spending during the pandemic because he believed it would drive up inflation and deficits.
“I’ve spent the last five years of my life obsessively opposed to money-printing deficits,” he told The Globe in an interview earlier in January, as he made a promise to eliminate the Liberals’ planned changes to capital gains taxes. The government said Friday the changes are now on pause.
In the same interview, Mr. Poilievre said he will have a costed platform to put before Canadians come the next election, but can only cost what he knows.
“I’m working the numbers. I’m making sure the numbers are accurate and responsible,” he said, adding that he’s being “meticulous and careful” about what he promises because “I plan to do the things I say.”
At present, the money the party has in the bank is more than enough to fund the next election campaign, which will have a spending limit for political parties of around $35-million, according to the current Elections Canada estimate.
And in general terms, the Conservatives, who enjoy a double-digit lead in the polls, say they are ready, though being able to confidently pinpoint the date of the next election is a challenge.
It is scheduled for October, but all opposition parties have committed to defeating the minority Liberals swiftly after Parliament resumes on March 24. The new Liberal leader elected on March 9 could take a different route, though, and dissolve Parliament to call for an election immediately.
The Conservatives recently held regional meetings with candidates to assess their readiness should they need to hit the campaign trail in mid- to late March, three party sources told The Globe. There are at least 225 of 343 candidates nominated, a roster that includes First Nations leaders, long-time party loyalists and activists, former provincial and municipal politicians, police officers and business owners.
With the funds they have outpacing election-spending limits, the Conservatives can continue with a plan outlined soon after Mr. Poilievre won the leadership in 2022: Spend as much as they can before campaign spending limits kick in.
How they’re spending online is illustrative, said Harneet Singh, the managing principal of the digital marketing agency EOK Consults, which works with campaigns across the partisan spectrum.
Right now, he sees the party testing out different kinds of ads on different demographics – ones that are about Mr. Poilievre himself, others about his potential rivals. When the campaign hits, they’ll likely spend more on the best performing clips, Mr. Singh said.
Along with those more general ads are ones in Chinese and South Asian languages talking about specific issues the party feels resonate in those communities, such as extortion rings involving South Asians. Those ads reflect just how targeted the Tory campaign will be, Mr. Singh said.
The hard part is figuring out where everything is going next, he said. A new Liberal leader, a new U.S. president and the state of the economy change the stakes for the Conservatives no matter what, Mr. Singh said.
“They cannot rest on their laurels.”