Conservative MP for Calgary Forest Lawn Jasraj Singh Hallan rises during Question Period, Feb. 16 in Ottawa.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
The Conservatives are wooing ethnic-minority Canadians and newcomers to try to broaden their support in urban and suburban seats they need to win the next election, as a new poll shows the Tories have nibbled away at the Liberals’ lead among racialized voters since Pierre Poilievre became leader.
The strategy, echoing an approach by former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, is being backed by more advertising in ethnic-minority media and a ramping up of engagement at community events by Mr. Poilievre and his front bench.
Jasraj Singh Hallan, Tory finance critic, said there had been a “big shift” in focus since Mr. Poilievre became leader, and more intense engagement with different communities.
Mr. Hallan, who is Sikh, said older ethnic-minority Liberal voters, concerned about the cost of living, are being turned off by “woke” language from the governing party.
Mr. Hallan told The Globe and Mail that Mr. Polievre’s promotion of him, as well as Tim Uppal, who is also Sikh, and Melissa Lantsman, who is Jewish, as deputy leaders, sent a clear message about inclusivity.
Ms. Lantsman, told The Globe and Mail the party was actively engaged with many different communities across Canada and its next “buy” of advertising space would be focusing on ethnic media.
She said the Conservatives appealed to newcomers’ values, such as hard work and achievement.
“No party can form government without that kind of support and the Liberals have taken that support for granted,” she said.
Arpan Khanna, the Conservatives’ national outreach chair, said there were now “multiple levels of engagement” and Mr. Poilievre was personally attending dozens of events, including community barbecues and gatherings in people’s backyards.
“At Diwali he went to six different places in five hours: fireworks, local sweet shops,” he said.
He said he is championing issues of concern to racialized communities, for example by issuing a statement condemning the treatment of Tamils in Sri Lanka.
Conservative messaging about the cost of living, being tough on crime, and the shortage of family doctors is resonating with diverse populations, including in the Greater Toronto Area, he said.
“People came here for their kids’ future and their kids safety,” he said. “Newcomer values are Conservative values and that is why it has been easy to appeal.”
Raquel Dancho, the Conservatives’ public safety critic, said community safety and rising violent crime – including on public transport in Toronto – are big issues among ethnic communities.
But pollster Quito Maggi said the Tories have a big task ahead to break down entrenched support for the Liberals among ethnic-minority groups, including in South Asian communities.
He said they voted overwhelmingly Liberal in the Greater Toronto Area, in seats that Mr. Poilievre will need to flip to stand a chance of winning the next election.
“In Toronto it’s estimated that 63 per cent of the population [is ethnic] – that’s a visible majority. It’s close to 50 per cent across the GTA,” Mr. Maggi, of Mainstreet Research, said.
An Abacus Data poll of 1,000 adults in Toronto this month found 44 per cent support the Liberals, compared with 27 per cent for the Conservatives and 18 per cent for the NDP. The margin of error is 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20
Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos research, said a “key battleground in the next federal election will be the 905 group of ridings that are rich in suburban voters and ethnic groups,” bordering Toronto, that are “clearly up for grabs.” The 905 refers to the area code in that region.
“In the last federal election the Trudeau Liberals did very well,” he said. “In the last Ontario provincial election the Ford Progressive Conservatives did well in the very same seats.”
“The path to victory for the Poilievre leadership is a replication of the Stephen Harper strategy: split the progressive Liberal/NDP vote and do well among suburban and ethnic voters,” he said.
“The interesting twist when it comes to newcomers to Canada is that although they may be grateful to the Liberals for welcoming them to Canada, many new Canadians are socially conservative and focus on family values and entrepreneurship.”
An Abacus Data poll from Saturday shows the Tories have made slight inroads into the Liberals’ support among visible minorities since Mr. Poilievre became leader last September.
Thirty-two per cent of racialized and visible-minority adults say they support the Conservatives, compared with 38 per cent for the Liberals.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said the gap has narrowed, but not by much.
”The Liberal Party of Canada lead among racialized Canadians has shrunk from 9 per cent to 6 per cent since Pierre Poilievre was elected,” he said.
Since Mr. Poilievre became leader, Tory support among racialized Canadians has risen from 31 to 32 per cent, and dropped for the Liberals from 40 to 38 per cent. NDP support dropped from 21 to 20 per cent, while the Greens’ support among visible minorities rose from 2 to 5 per cent and the Bloc Québécois rose from zero to 1 per cent.
The online poll from Aug. 26 to Sept. 14, 2022, of 3,490 Canadians 18 and older had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The poll of 4,000 Canadians between Feb. 9 to 18 has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.