Australian Air Force Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet is displayed during the International Bali Airshow at Ngurah Rai International Airport in Kuta, Bali, Indonesia, on Sept. 18, 2024.Johannes Christo/Reuters
The federal government says a reconsideration of its $19-billion purchase of U.S.-made warplanes is under way, a review that defence analysts warn could antagonize U.S. President Donald Trump as Ottawa and Washington prepare for talks on a new economic and security relationship.
Shortly after Mark Carney took office as Prime Minister in March, Defence Minister Bill Blair announced that the government would look at alternatives to the F-35. The trade war between Canada and the United States was then deepening.
Later, Mr. Carney explained that Ottawa would weigh trimming its F-35 purchase plans to buy an alternative aircraft that would be more cost-effective and could deliver additional industrial benefits domestically instead of sending more dollars to the U.S.
In late March, however, Mr. Carney reached an agreement with Mr. Trump to begin negotiations on a new economic and security relationship between Canada and the U.S. after the election was over.
On Wednesday, Department of National Defence spokesman Alex Tétreault said the review of the F-35 purchase has begun, but he couldn‘t say when it might be concluded.
“Discussions are ongoing to establish the scope of the review to ensure it is efficient and thorough, and determine timelines for the completion,” he wrote.
Andrea Charron, director of the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at the University of Manitoba, said proceeding to trim the aircraft order could irritate Washington further.
“Using the F-35 as a bargaining chip could backfire badly,” she said.
Philippe Lagassé, a Carleton University associate professor whose research areas include defence policy and procurement, said further talk of scaling back the F-35 order could also be useful to reach a deal on security. “I suspect it would be seen as antagonistic, but also useful as leverage in negotiations on defence,” he said.
The Department of National Defence and the Canadian military are unlikely to support scrapping the F-35 purchase, Prof. Lagassé and Prof. Charron said.
Canada’s aging CF-18 fighter fleet, originally purchased in the 1980s, is reaching the end of its lifespan, and Ottawa dragged out a procurement process to pick a replacement for nearly 13 years. It had originally selected the F-35 in 2010 but then restarted the competition and finally selected the Lockheed Martin aircraft, its original choice, in early 2023.
Canada is legally obligated to buy at least 16 of the full order of F-35 aircraft, the government has said, and a decision to buy a second non-U.S. fighter would mean launching a new competition for another line of warplanes at a time when money is tight and CF-18s are soon to be retired.
“The Forces are going to be thoroughly opposed, and they will fight tooth and nail, I suspect, to not allow this to happen,” Prof. Lagassé said of the idea of reducing the F-35 order.
Prof. Charron said it could take Canada years to select a different fighter jet. She noted that Canada has also dispatched pilots to be trained on the F-35, and operating and maintaining two different warplane fleets would be expensive.
“The costs of cancelling the contract and difficulty finding replacement parts for the CF-18 means that some may need to be grounded if a replacement interceptor does not come online in a timely fashion,” she said.
“I think everybody’s hoping that maybe this will all blow over and that the Canada-U.S. relationship can heal,” Prof. Charron said, referring to the Royal Canadian Air Force and Department of National Defence.
The runner-up in the Canadian government’s competition for new fighters was Sweden’s Saab Gripen. Two of the other entrants, the Eurofighter Typhoon consortium – with substantial British participation – and France’s Dassault Rafale, withdrew from the Canadian competition before a final decision was made.
In March, The Globe and Mail reported that Lockheed Martin, the U.S. defence giant that builds the F-35, had offered to create more jobs in Canada if Ottawa buys all of the jets it said it would when the contract was announced in 2023.