Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Gov. Gen. Mary Simon depart after Dominic LeBlanc was sworn in as Finance Minister during a ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa on Dec. 16.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is holding discussions with cabinet ministers and senior party leaders about stepping down early in the new year, but close confidants have walked away from these conversations with starkly different conclusions about where he stands.
One confidant, who spoke directly to Mr. Trudeau this week, said the Prime Minister believes he can no longer continue after Chrystia Freeland rocked the government with her surprise resignation as finance minister and deputy prime minister on Monday.
However, a second source who also spoke to Mr. Trudeau, said the Prime Minister does not want to go and remains motivated to lead the Liberals through the headwinds they face.
The conflicting conclusions reflect the chaotic and fast-moving political dynamics in the aftermath of Ms. Freeland’s departure.
As well, several cabinet ministers are campaigning to persuade Mr. Trudeau to stay and overcome mounting calls to quit.
Mr. Trudeau was prepared to step aside on Monday but was talked out of leaving, a third source said.
Three other sources, including a senior Liberal Party insider who met with the Prime Minister late in the week, said Mr. Trudeau is reflecting on his future but will not decide on whether to stay or leave until early in the new year.
The Globe and Mail is not identifying the six sources who were not authorized to disclose private conversations with the Prime Minister.
Mr. Trudeau has not spoken publicly about his future since Ms. Freeland’s resignation, and while he will attend a cabinet swearing-in ceremony at Rideau Hall Friday, his itinerary does not say he will hold a news conference.
The Prime Minister needs to replace newly appointed Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc at Public Safety, and fill the posts of several other ministers who have already resigned or indicated they won’t seek re-election. Friday’s shuffle is expected to involve more than 10 people, including new names and current ministers being moved to new positions.
Ms. Freeland triggered the Prime Minister’s most serious political crisis of his tenure when she abruptly resigned from cabinet, citing policy and political differences with Mr. Trudeau. Since then, at least 18 Liberal MPs have publicly called for the Prime Minister to step down.
In her resignation letter, Ms. Freeland accused Mr. Trudeau of planning political-spending gimmicks and lacking the gravitas needed to deal with the threat of 25-per-cent tariffs from the incoming Republican administration of president-elect Donald Trump.
The confidant who spoke to Mr. Trudeau over the past days and said he knows he no longer can continue, said the Prime Minister was shell-shocked by the resignation that has destabilized his government and reignited calls for him to quit.
This confidant said Mr. Trudeau acknowledged he mishandled his conversation with Ms. Freeland when he told her last Friday that he was replacing her at Finance with former central banker Mark Carney and moving her to a new job as a minister-without-portfolio for Canada-U.S. relations, but with no departmental staff, money or statutory authority.
Mr. Trudeau realized he has no choice but to announce he will be stepping aside once a new leader is chosen, the confidant said, adding that before that happens, the Prime Minister wants the party to figure out the rules for a leadership contest, including the length of the race and memberships.
In contrast, the source who spoke with the Prime Minister and concluded he did not want to leave, said the majority of cabinet supports Mr. Trudeau and that very few people have directly told the Prime Minister this week that his time is up. The source acknowledged that a lot needs to fall into place for Mr. Trudeau to remain in his post, adding that one area of concern is if the team around him still has the fight.
The cabinet shuffle is the start of Mr. Trudeau’s moves to remain Prime Minister and Liberal Leader, the source said.
However, both sources who came away with different conclusions said the Prime Minister needs time to digest the events of the last week and plans to take time with his family over the holidays.
The third source, who said Mr. Trudeau was prepared to step aside on Monday but was talked out of leaving, said it was Mr. LeBlanc and Immigration Minister Marc Miller, two of his closest friends, who did so.
This source said that the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, Katie Telford, is leading efforts to persuade Mr. Trudeau to stay, adding she is putting calls through to him from people urging him to remain and none from people counselling him to go.
The Liberal Party constitution makes no mention of holding a leadership contest during a minority Parliament. But a party insider said the rules are clear that a leadership contest cannot begin until 28 days after the leader announces he is leaving.
A former Liberal Party director said a leadership contest could take five months, adding the other option is to have the caucus select an interim leader who would then have to be approved at a Liberal convention.
The Globe is not identifying the two sources who were not permitted to disclose the internal party deliberations.
Five other Liberal sources laid out some of the expectations for the Friday cabinet shuffle. The Globe is not identifying them because they were not permitted to disclose the still-confidential information.
Anita Anand is expected to lose her Treasury Board role but will keep the Transport portfolio. She has been juggling both files since Pablo Rodriguez left to run for the Quebec Liberal Party leadership in September.
Toronto MP Nate Erskine-Smith is expected to be promoted to housing minister, replacing Sean Fraser, who announced he will not run again. David McGuinty is expected to be promoted to the Public Safety file. He is currently the chair of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians.
Winnipeg MP Terry Duguid, currently campaign co-chair for the Liberals, is expected to take over as Northern Affairs Minister from Dan Vandal, who has announced he will not see re-election. Halifax-area MP Darren Fisher is also expected to be promoted to cabinet.